For decades, physicists have promised that quantum computing would one day surpass classical machines. That day may have come.
On October 22, Google's Willow quantum processor completed a task that would take a supercomputer 150 years to complete, compressing centuries of calculations into two hours.
Industry experts say the results, verified by Nature, are not just a victory for science. This is a tremor that shakes the foundations of digital security and raises new questions in the financial world: How close are we to a future where quantum forces can break Bitcoin's encryption?
breakthrough
This breakthrough focuses on the Out-of-Time-Order Correlator (OTOC), or “quantum echo” algorithm.
By running at 99.9% fidelity on 105 physical qubits, Willow became the first processor to achieve verifiable quantum advantage, proving that quantum computers can solve complex physical models faster and more accurately than traditional supercomputers.
Simply put, Willow didn't just do the math. I recognized that. The output revealed molecular structures and magnetic interactions that were mathematically invisible to conventional systems. This processor outperformed traditional machines by a factor of 13,000, completing calculations in hours instead of years.
This milestone follows years of incremental progress. In 2019, Google's Sycamore chip demonstrated “quantum supremacy” for the first time.
By 2024, Willow has corrected her quantum error in real time. The 2025 results will take a further step forward, providing the first fully verifiable and independently confirmed results that will take quantum computing from theory to proof.
Speaking on this milestone, Google CEO Sundar Pichai said:
“This breakthrough is an important step towards the first real-world applications of quantum computing, and we look forward to seeing where it leads.”
Bitcoin concerns
Bitcoin's architecture is based on elliptic curves and hash-based cryptography, specifically the SHA-256 algorithm.
Its security depends on how long it takes even the fastest computer to revoke a private key from its corresponding public key.
This is a feat that would take billions of years on classical machines. But a quantum computer capable of running Scholl's algorithm could theoretically crack these cryptographic primitives exponentially faster.
The fact is that Bitcoin remains safe for now. Google's Willow uses just 105 qubits, far fewer than the millions of error-corrected logical qubits needed to threaten real-world cryptography.
But that doesn't entirely reassure analysts like Jameson Ropp, who estimates that about 25% of all Bitcoin (about 4.9 million BTC) resides in addresses whose public keys are already public.
These coins primarily belong to early users and dormant wallets, and will be the first to face risks should crypto-enabled quantum systems emerge.
Additionally, institutional concerns are beginning to surface.
Earlier this year, BlackRock, the world's largest issuer of Bitcoin ETFs, warned of quantum risks, warning that advances in computing could “undermine the cryptographic framework that underpins Bitcoin.”
The company said such threats remain “theoretical at this stage,” but stressed that disclosure is necessary to inform investors about technology that “could change the fundamental security assumptions[of BTC].”
Repulsion
Despite the headlines, most industry experts warn against panic.
Bitcoin expert Timothy Peterson also argued that Willow's impressive results are far from a real threat.
According to him:
“Even under very optimistic and incorrectly extrapolated assumptions (that a quantum device can run SHA-256 at that speed and sustain it), it takes on average about 10 hours to find one block, and the entire Bitcoin global network produces one block every 10 minutes.”
Bitcoin entrepreneur Ben Sigman agrees with this view, pointing out that:
“[Google]still needs millions of stable, error-correcting qubits for quantum computers to reach a 'practical' scale that could potentially threaten cryptography and Bitcoin.”
In fact, Anis Chohan, CTO of Inflectiv.ai, says: crypto slate “It will be at least 10 years, maybe two years, before it becomes a real concern.”
Still, not everyone is relieved. Capriol founder Charles Edwards has warned that ignoring quantum risks could lead to “the biggest bear market in history” by next year.
Meanwhile, Jeff Park, CIO of ProCap BTC, took a more philosophical view by viewing quantum computing as Bitcoin's “climate change.” he said:
“Quantum computing is basically the climate change of Bitcoin. There are a lot of idiots who deny quantum computing because there's no way they can understand anything amorphous or astronomical, and a lot of scientists who understand quantum computing but can't offer socially convincing solutions.”
What's next?
Beyond speculation, developers are already researching post-quantum cryptography, including new systems based on lattice problems, multivariate equations, and hash-based signatures that can resist quantum attacks. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has shortlisted several such algorithms for standardization.
At the same time, Bitcoin Core contributors announced a proposal for a gradual transition to a quantum-resistant address format.
However, implementing them requires broad consensus across miners, exchanges, and wallet providers, a feat of governance almost as complex as the technology itself.
Still, Chohan concluded:
“We've seen similar fears before. People once thought RSA encryption was unbreakable, but then they feared it could be broken overnight.
Each time, we have adapted. Quantum computing presents real challenges, but we are already working on post-quantum cryptography.
Governments, banks, and crypto networks all rely on similar encryption standards, so everyone has a common interest in protecting them.
It's not a question of being able to solve this problem, it's a matter of managing the transition responsibly and smoothly. ”
