Bitcoin's last trading day of 2025 may seem boring at first glance, but it was actually a big deal. It ended the week higher, although it was still well below its weekly average.
The BTC/USDT weekly candlestick from TradingView closed at $87,952, representing a year-to-date increase of 1.03%. In the headline, it's not a big deal. From a pricing perspective, this market has stopped the bleeding, removed some of the fear, and has a big visible target on top of it, with the same indicators that most traders keep on display on their screens.
Its target is the 20-week Bollinger median line of 103,397.02. At a price of $88,861, the gap to the midline is 16.35%, and $100,000 per BTC lies just inside that distance. This is why this level could start to look like a normal January recovery if risk appetite returns and we see spot bidding.
Road to 100,000 BTC
The band also indicates the location of the ceiling and traps. The cap is $127,401, so even if it falls back toward the average, there's still plenty of room for the market to expand this time. The lower band is $79,392, lining up as the obvious place the chart would show if the late December norm breaks down.
If Bitcoin can break above the weekly low of $86,806 and close near $90,406, we could start to see the story turn from defensive to full-fledged recovery. It helps that $95,000 and $100,000 act like halfway points on the path to $103,397.
After losing $86,806, the whole story depends on whether buyers defend the $70,000 high before the next leg is priced in.
