ETF Flows Support ETH, but CPI Risk Makes Traders Cautious

Ethereum price is trading around $3,836 today, struggling to hold above short-term support after a volatile week. Bulls point to new ETF inflows and institutional buying, but traders remain wary of macro headwinds and potential liquidation risk if momentum weakens.

ETF demand drives Ethereum price fluctuations

Ethereum’s price performance is showing some stability following the addition of new ETF interest following Monday’s $420 million redemption. According to data shared by market analyst Ted Pillows, the ETH ETF recorded $141.7 million in inflows on October 21, of which BlackRock and Fidelity accounted for more than $101 million. This marks the strongest daily ETF inflows since early October and provides a lower end for sentiment after weeks of uneven demand.

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Despite the supportive flows, Ethereum price remains below the 50-day EMA of $3,968 today and is struggling to recover near the 100-day EMA of $4,063. A sustained recovery above these levels is needed to ensure that institutional demand can overcome recent selling pressure.

Netflows show mixed feelings

On-chain data highlights the tug of war between buyers and sellers. Coinglass spot flow data shows there was approximately $54.8 million in net outflows from the exchange on October 22nd, following large outflows at the beginning of the month. Net outflows are generally supportive of prices as they indicate holders are moving ETH off exchanges, but the magnitude of the fluctuations has been modest compared to July and August, when outflows were more active.

This relaxation explains why Ethereum price prediction models remain splintered. While short-term traders see outflows as a bullish sign, the lack of strong accumulation suggests the market is waiting for confirmation from broader catalysts before building upward momentum.

Technical resistance limits upside momentum

Ethereum price movement on the daily chart shows resistance between $3,968 and $4,154, marked by the 50-day EMA and 100-day EMA. Price's rejection in this zone in early October highlights the challenges bulls face in regaining bullish momentum.

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The relative strength index (RSI) is around 40, indicating that ETH is not yet in oversold territory but lacks strong momentum. A breakdown below $3,772 exposes the 200-day EMA and the downtrend line at $3,570. Conversely, if we break above $4,154, our focus will shift to $4,400 and ultimately $4,800, where ETH hit its all-time high in August.

Macro data that approaches ETH price prediction

Currently, the macroeconomic situation plays a decisive role. Pillows points out that if Ethereum declines by 10%, $2.59 billion of ETH longs could be liquidated, while if ETH rises by 10%, $3.65 billion of shorts could be wiped out. This sets the stage for a sharp move following this week's release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI).

If the CPI falls below 3%, a short squeeze will occur, and forced liquidations could cause the price of Ethereum to rise. A better-than-expected sell-off would accelerate the overall altcoin sell-off and risk a further drop below key support. This makes the CPI release one of the most important near-term drivers for ETH and the broader altcoin market.

Outlook: Will Ethereum Rise?

For now, Ethereum price forecasts remain balanced between ETF-driven demand and macro uncertainty. The bulls need to defend the $3,772-$3,800 zone and reclaim the $3,968-$4,154 resistance band to pave the way to $4,400. Failure to hold support could quickly put $3,570 at risk, with the risk of further decline if CPI data disappoints.

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ETF inflows from BlackRock and Fidelity suggest that confidence among financial institutions remains intact, but the market's ability to absorb macro shocks will determine the next leg. Traders keeping an eye on Ethereum price today are looking for a breakout or breakdown that could determine sentiment through November.