In a market update on October 10, technical analyst Nick Patel (@OstiumLabs) argued that Ethereum is approaching a win-lose zone, and the next few sessions will determine whether the rally resumes or a deeper unwind unfolds. With spot ETH going for around $4,000, Patel pinned his thesis on a tight cluster of withdrawal and invalidation levels for both ETH/USD and ETH/BTC, emphasizing that lower timeframe action needs to match higher timeframe structure to keep the bullish path open.
Current Ethereum main price levels
Regarding the weekly chart for ETH/USD, Patel said the market “had fallen significantly last week to the August trough, but it rose above the previous weekly low and trendline support,” resulting in an inside week that ended “slightly below the major pivot.” This pivot is clear. “We are hoping that this pivot $4,093 is quickly redeemed and does not turn into resistance here on the lower time frame. If not, we would expect another flush of lows towards the 2025 open.”
Patel expects last week's move to be a quarterly low if buyers force collections. “If we can recover $4,093 here, which is what I expect, the quarterly low should be in now and we would hope $4,400 turns into support for a rally to all-time highs and beyond.”
He set the weekly void price at $3,700 and warned that if the price closes below $3,700, he will watch the year's open price as “last support” for the bullish structure. If it fails there, there is a risk of “an even bigger reversal to $2,850.” Mr. Patel's base case remained constructive. “Over the next week, acceptance rose above $4,093, followed by an October close of above $4,400, leading to new highs of $5,000 in early November, making it a very strong month for ETH.”
The daily ETH/USD reading connects its high timeframe blueprint to momentum and market structure. Patel noted that last week “the momentum to the low dried up and then the rally from the high to the low” and said this formation must now be defended. He would like to see the sequence reaffirmed with a rally above the mid-range and then a high-low above the weekly pivot. “We absolutely hope that this structure is now protected and we see the price form a high and high above the mid-range at $4,352, then a high low above $4,093 before breaking out further and pushing the price towards new highs.”
As a confirmation of the impulsive leg, he flagged a break in the trend line, a reversal to support for VWAP anchored at ATH, and an RSI regime shift. “If a trendline breakout occurs and the price reverses to support at ATH VWAP with the daily RSI above 50, we expect it to rise very quickly to $4,950 and then find out the price in November.” The daily invalidation mirrors the weekly logic. If $4,093 acts as resistance and the market falls below $3,700 and then closes below it, “we would be retesting the full year open,” he sees.
ETH vs BTC
Regarding Bitcoin, Patel argues that relative Bitcoin has likely hit a fourth-quarter low. On the weekly chart of ETH/BTC, the price rejected the trendline resistance, then sustained back to the year's open price, and ended in the “slightly green” while respecting the trendline support from the 2025 low.
“My view is that the Q4 low for the pair formed here,” he wrote, adding that a retest and breakout of the downbound boundary into early November would set the stage for a cautious expansion. “If it is accepted above 0.0417, the next bar could move higher to 0.055,” it added. He had a weekly invalidation of 0.0319.
The daily ETH/BTC map refines these signals to an actionable level. The price “hit a low between 0.0319 and the year's open before rebounding strongly to regain support at 0.036.” Ideally, 0.036 would serve as a starting point. If not, Patel is open to higher highs and lows with “a further rally above the 0.0319 level.”
A tactical decision would be to reverse nearby supplies. “If we can regain support here and reverse 0.0379, it would be encouraging for the view that a breakout of the trend line is imminent. After that, we expect prices to move higher through a breakout of 0.0417, but there will be small resistance above it at 0.049 before 0.055.” He also identified a confluence band below. “The confluence of support is 0.0293 to 0.0319, so a reversal of that range into resistance would make ETH/BTC very bearish.”
In summary, Patel's October 10 blueprint hinges on three synchronizations. ETH/USD needs to recover and defend $4,093 quickly. Clearing the runway for the previous high would require a ceiling-to-floor conversion of $4,400, with a potential extension of $4,950. ETH/BTC should then move through 0.0379 and then 0.0417 to confirm the range of relative strength below the dollar breakout.
The downside is equally clear. A failure to recover $4,093, a weekly close below $3,700, and a subsequent loss of the year's open price would justify the risk of Ethereum “unwinding back to $2,850,” in Patel's words.
At the time of writing, ETH was trading at $3,872.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart on TradingView.com
