Ethereum has finally broken over $3,000. This is a psychological level that I've struggled for months. But what's noteworthy is what encouraged movement. A surge in short-term wallet activity suggesting retail demand is awake.
Combined with the consistent ETF inflow and structural resistance levels currently being tested, ETH appears to be prepared for the next major movement. The real question: Can you hold this momentum?
Retail demand is waking and visible on-chain
ETH price breaks above $3,000 aren't just technical. It's action. According to GlassNode's HODL Waves, short-term holders (particularly 1W-1M, 1M-3M, and even 10Y bands) have grown steadily over the past few days, measuring the percentage of ETH held across bands of different ages.
Hodl Waves and ETH Price (period of one month): GlassNode
This spike shows an increase in participation from new wallets, which represent retail demand.
This sudden uplift in the short-term cohort stands out compared to the best ever HODL wave charts in which long-term retention bands usually remain dominated. Notifies you of a turnaround to active trading behavior.
Best HODL Waves Chart of All Time: GlassNode
Hodl Waves represents the time a coin is in your wallet. The growth of short-term bands signals updated retail activity (acquired by new ETH), while the long-term bands represent cold storage and convictions. For ETH, it's both.
Wallet clusters can determine the next move for Momentum
When Ethereum tests the $3,000 zone, money data comes and goes, it adds a significant context to how many leg rooms this gathering actually has.
Currently, the largest on-chain wallet clusters range between $2,237 and $2,523, with millions of addresses currently profitable. This range serves as the basis for current movements and shows where the conviction came from. When momentum weakens, this level is most likely to serve as a strong support as profit holders tend to double the sales.
Keywallet cluster using In/Out Money indicator: Intotheblock
But above its current level, Ethereum is in a band with a break-even rate of between $2,968 and $3,230. After this, the next red zone for Money of Out of the Money Holder is above $3,230, which increases the risk of making a profit.
The money metric in/out indicates where the current ETH owner purchased the coin. Clusters represent zones of buyer density and often act as soft support or resistance depending on emotions.
What Breakeven Band Ethereum is currently navigating is where momentum is being tested (or to be precise, the strongest resistance). Smashing it cleanly opens the way to $3,500. Losing it, Larry returns to a stronger conviction zone of around $2,523.
Fibonacci and Oblivious divergence price levels and momentum hinges
Ethereum's recent push over $3,000 brings it to a critical zone of resistance. The 0.618 Fibonacci expansion was pulled using trend-based levels from a $1,388 Swing Low, a $2,869 peak, and a $2,123 retracement donkey. This will result in $3,045 as immediate resistance, making $3,295 (0.786 FIB level) the next ceiling.
ETH Price Analysis: TradingView
These FIB levels are not alone. They are closely aligned both within and outside the money resistance cluster, between $2,968 and $3,230. This confluence reinforces the idea that momentum is being tested here, with both the technique and the wallet's movements.
Above this range, the next target will be $3,615. 1 Fibonacci level. However, only if momentum is maintained.
ETH Prices and OBV Divergence: TradingView
However, one important metric is to flush warnings. The ETH price has increased, but the balanced volume (OBV) could not break beyond its previous high at $2,890 from the last peak. This difference indicates that the volume does not fully support the gathering. A classic sign that momentum is slowing down.
obv tracks cumulative net volumes. If prices rise while OBVs are falling, it often indicates that demand will weaken or fewer new buyers will enter the market.
Faults below $2,693 check the fork weight at 0.382 FIB level. This level can become a technical disable point and could push the ETH price to under $2,475.
