Ethereum has been stable at over $4,300, but market attention is currently below the key support level of $4,250 just below the current price. Although ETH is trading at $4,357, analysts point to the $4,250 zone as the key battlefield determining the next major trend.
A massive 65% surge in trading volume shows that big money is positioned for a critical move.
Why is the $4,250 level so important?
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez said $4,250 for X is a key price range for ETH. Back up this. The 20- and 50-day EMA serves as a major zone of support and resistance, at $4,347 and $4,088, respectively.
$4,250 is the level of support for monitoring Ethereum $ETH! pic.twitter.com/elehnrojh9
– Ali (@Ali_Charts) September 9, 2025
If the ETH maintains momentum above the 20-day EMA, the Bulls may try to retry a higher resistance level. However, breakdowns can expose the market to a deeper setback.
Related: Today's Ethereum (ETH) price forecast for September 9th
Bull Case: Is this a repeat of Bitcoin's 2020 rally?
In addition to the Bull case, analyst Ted Pillow drew a fascinating similarity between Ethereum's current structure and Bitcoin performance in the 2020 cycle.
$eth is doing exactly what $BTC did its final cycle.
In 2020, BTC made a 25%-30% correction right after hitting the new ATH.
Ethereum also made similar fixes, down 16% so far.
A similar 25%-30% fix for ETH sends around $3,500-$3,700. This too…pic.twitter.com/ifgdduiwby
– Ted (@tedpillows) September 8, 2025
He said in 2020 that Bitcoin had revised about 25%-30% after hitting a new all-time high before launching it into the Parabolic Q4 Rally.
Ethereum has dropped by 16% from its recent high, and appears to reflect this exact pattern. If the ETH follows the same path, it is possible to modify it to the $3,500-3,700 range, which is consistent with the Bull Market Support Band.
From there, traders were anticipating a strong rally heading into the final quarter of the year, following a sharp turnaround.
Bear Case: Does the rising wedge pattern indicate a failure?
Looking at the daily charts, it appears that ETH is trading within an upward wedge pattern. This is a structure that precedes either a breakout or a breakdown depending on the volume confirmation.
The wedge cap converges near the $4,700 to $4,800 area, which coincides with the upper Bollinger band. This will result in $4,784 as a critical level of resistance where sellers are likely to re-emerge.
On the downside, the Wedge support trendline intersects the $4,200-4,300 region that overlaps with Arimartinez highlight levels, and this zone is essential for the Bulls to defend themselves.
Meanwhile, RSI is currently in the 52nd place, suggesting a neutral state with no clear control from buyers and sellers.
However, MACD has revealed that it is holding back bullish momentum as signal lines threaten to cross, which could lead to short-term weakness.
Meanwhile, Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is slightly negative, suggesting mild capital outflow from assets.
So, what are the important levels to look at?
In a bullish scenario, holding beyond the $4,250-$4,300 region will allow ETH to gather strength for another push towards $4,700-$4,800.
Meanwhile, bearish breakdowns below $4,250 could accelerate sales pressure and drag ETH into the $3,700-$3,500 range with bull market support bands.
If the cycle analogy applies, the coming months could mark a final significant shakeout before ETH embarks on the expected parabolic rally in the fourth quarter.
Related: Ethereum whales accumulate $230 million due to negative exchange balances
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