Ethereum retreated below the $3,200 level after the Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which initially triggered volatility across cryptocurrency markets. Many had expected a stronger response from Ethereum, but the asset instead fell as traders reassessed the macro environment and the implications of a potential shift toward stagflation. Despite this downward trend, on-chain data suggests that the underlying market structure is quietly improving.
Ethereum’s net taker volume (30-day moving average) is showing a clear upward trend from lows, according to new insights from CryptoQuant. This indicator tracks the balance between aggressive buyers and sellers in the derivatives market. ETH is still under selling pressure, but data shows that the intensity of aggressive selling has been steadily weakening over the past few weeks. Each subsequent negative low is formed higher than the previous low, indicating that sellers are losing control.
While broad sentiment remains cautious, a subtle improvement in net taker volume suggests that ETH's current weakness may be masking the early stages of a larger structural change.
Net taker volume indicates potential structural change.
According to CryptoQuant’s CoinCare, Ethereum may be approaching a critical turning point once again. The report highlights that a similar Net Taker Volume structure emerged earlier this year. After forming a clear bottom in January 2025, the indicator began to show an upward trend while remaining in negative territory. This indicates that aggressive sellers are gradually losing power.
By April, Net Taker Volume had moved decisively into positive territory. From that very moment, Ethereum entered one of the strongest rallies of the cycle, surging more than threefold and hitting a new all-time high.
The current situation reflects the same pattern. After selling pressure peaked in September, the market continued to absorb selling flows for nearly three months. Each negative low in Net Taker Volume was made higher than the previous one, indicating improved market resilience despite the broader downtrend. If this trajectory holds, CoinCare estimates that a positive reversal in Net Taker Volume is only about a month away.
Historically, this negative-to-positive transition marked the beginning of Ethereum's most explosive breakout phase. A confirmed move into positive territory signals a high probability of the next extension towards new all-time highs and indicates that momentum is quietly rebuilding beneath the surface.
ETH Weekly Rescue Attempts to Recover
Ethereum's weekly chart shows that the market is attempting to stabilize after several weeks of volatility, with the price currently trading near $3,195 after a strong bounce in the $2,800 area. The region served as a key demand area in mid-2024, once again providing support and preventing a further collapse. The latest weekly candle reflected renewed buying interest, closing well above the 50-week moving average, a level that defines the direction of the medium-term trend.
Despite this rebound, ETH still faces structural issues. The 100-week moving average, which is currently overhead, has served as resistance throughout the current downtrend, and the price rejected it again in the recent rally towards $3,447. The broader trend remains neutral to slightly bearish until Ethereum regains this dynamic resistance with confidence.
Trading volume also shows notable changes. While sell-side activity has declined over the past month, buyers have begun to engage more aggressively at key support levels. This is consistent with improvements in on-chain metrics and suggests selling pressure is waning.
For bulls, the next major target is a weekly close above $3,400, which would signal a potential trend reversal. However, failure to break this level could result in another retest of $2,900-$2,800, testing market sentiment again.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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