Ethereum Traders are positioning themselves more optimistically. Bitcoin Optional data shows.
Despite a broadly cautious investor stance, this divergence suggests that traders see the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization as having less immediate downside risk than Bitcoin.
This outlook is consistent with recent spot price performance.
Ethereum has fallen about 2% in the past 24 hours and is trading just above $3,100, according to data from CoinGecko. Year-to-date performance is -3%, slightly better than Bitcoin's -6%, but both assets have fallen by double digits since October, with Ethereum down 19% and Bitcoin down 25%.
For long-term options, Ethereum's 90-day skew is -1.7%, which is “clearly more bullish” than Bitcoin's -4%, said Sean Dawson, head of research at on-chain options platform Derive. decryption. “In other words, traders are more eager to insure Bitcoin than Ethereum.”
The negative skew of both assets indicates that there continues to be greater demand for protective put options than bullish calls. However, the depth of the bearishness is what separates the two.
Dawson said that despite the recent recovery supported by dovish Federal Reserve sentiment, the market is “a far cry from the bullish sentiment we saw at the beginning of the fourth quarter.” He advises caution in the coming weeks.
Ethereum bear withdraws
The signals indicate a temporary thaw in the Ethereum bear market in particular.
“Although there are signs of waning bearishness in the Ethereum options market, derivatives traders are still not pricing in a full ‘Santa Rally,’” said Tarbib Rahman, research analyst at Block Shoals, a crypto research platform. decryption.
Rahman highlighted that Ethereum’s short-term contract put-call skew briefly turned positive recently, marking the most bullish position since late October. Additionally, the company's proprietary Block-Scholes Risk Appetite Index for Ethereum appears to have bottomed out, a pattern that has historically preceded upturns in sentiment.
Rahman pointed out similarities with the market structure in May 2025, which preceded the big rally.
“At the time, the rally started on the back of a more positive macro environment, the Pectra upgrade began, and the Ethereum spot ETF had some of the best inflows in the following weeks,” Rahman said.
He noted that similar catalysts are currently at work. Markets are pricing in the possibility of a Fed rate cut in December, Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade goes live to improve Layer 2 efficiency, and companies like Bitmine are making large ETH purchases. He said the missing ingredient is a sustained wave of inflows into spot Ethereum ETFs, which will be needed to fuel a more definitive bullish move.
The technical positioning shown in the options market data highlights that while the market is not expecting a big rally, it is cautiously discounting Ethereum's typical downside potential.
However, the perspective from the retail prediction market contrasts with the cautious bias in expert choices. Myriad users, owners decryption Parent company Dastan puts a 75% chance that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 before $69,000, a significantly more bullish outlook than the 49% chance that Ethereum will reach $4,000 before $2,500.
