Ethereum price looks set to end 2025 with double-digit losses, but the start of the new year appears to be a more worrying topic. A prominent on-chain analyst has identified a critical price level that could determine the future of ETH in the coming months.
3 main areas of support for ETH price
In a new post on social media platform According to on-chain analytics experts, ETH price is currently holding three important on-chain support levels.
First, Wedson highlighted that the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-Score, which provides insight into when an asset is overvalued or undervalued, suggests that the Ethereum price is squarely in its final support cushion. According to the cryptocurrency founder, if this level fails, ETH price could experience an aggressive downtrend.
Source: @joao_wedson on X
Wedson also noted: Market capitalization growth ratewhich reflects the actual expansion of Ethereum's market capitalization over time, is testing an important level of structural support. The Alphractal CEO said falling below this support would weaken capital inflows, suggesting downward pressure could be imminent.
Additionally, the cryptocurrency analyst noted that Delta Growth Rate, a metric that measures the difference between realized capital growth and market capitalization growth, which generates an on-chain alpha signal, is also gaining support. “This level of loss means speculative capital is leaving the market and the likelihood of a future capitulation phase increases,” Wedson added.
According to cryptocurrency experts, if this on-chain foundation collapses, it is very likely that the price of Ethereum will fall below $2,000. As we head into the new year, lower demand increases supply pressure, making a correction of 30% or more relative to current prices more likely.
The blockchain company founder did not dismiss the idea of taking a long-term position in the Ethereum market at current price levels, especially for investors with a high risk appetite. At the same time, Wedson said the Ethereum price remains in a vulnerable position when looking at the broader outlook.
Ethereum price overview
Currently, the price of Ethereum is down more than 40% from its all-time high of $4,946. This record makes it the second-largest cryptocurrency in the fourth quarter of 2025 and perhaps reflects difficulties in the broader market. At the time of this writing, ETH is valued at around $2,940 and has not moved much in the past 24 hours.
The price of ETH on the daily timeframe | Source: ETHUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
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