Ethereum has bounced back from the $3,240 level and is currently testing the $3,150 area as support, a key area being watched closely by traders. Bulls are attempting to defend this level after a modest rebound, but uncertainty remains high as the market attempts to establish direction following several weeks of volatility and aggressive selling pressure. Some analysts see this consolidation as an early step in the recovery, while others warn that ETH may still be vulnerable to a deeper pullback if momentum does not strengthen.
According to top analyst Darkfost, Ethereum’s recent price movements are being shaped by notable changes in market structure. Spot trading volumes have continued to decline despite prices attempting some recovery over the past few days. This weakening of spot activity reduces the impact of actual buying and selling of the underlying asset, making futures markets increasingly influential in determining near-term price direction.
As Darkfost explains, when spot trading volumes decline, futures often become the dominant driver of volatility. These dynamics can accelerate upward and downward movements depending on the trader's positioning. With Ethereum currently sitting at a critical support level, the market awaits a clearer signal to determine whether this bounce can develop into a sustained recovery or simply represents a temporary pause in the downtrend.
Futures-driven momentum drives Ethereum stakes higher.
Darkfost expands on this dynamic by noting that if spot volume weakens to levels seen over the past few days, the risk of higher volatility increases dramatically. The lack of spot liquidity means that there are fewer buy and sell orders available to absorb sudden movements, so futures-driven momentum can have a big impact on prices. These environments often result in sharper swings and faster changes in direction as leveraged traders and algorithmic strategies dominate short-term market action.
The futures market is currently trending upward, providing constructive strength to help Ethereum hold above the $3,150 support zone. Darkfost highlights that this upward pressure in futures could work in favor of the bulls, as if volatility escalates to the upside, it could push the spot market to follow the same trajectory.
That said, a sustained futures-led rebound could serve as the spark needed for a broader recovery, especially if spot buyers begin to gain confidence and re-enter the market.
However, this setting blocks both directions. Unless spot participation strengthens, a reversal in futures positioning could quickly translate into an acceleration of downward pressure. Ethereum is currently in a sensitive phase where volatility is both a potential catalyst and a potential threat, and the next few sessions will be critical in determining the near-term direction of the market.
ETH Weekly Structure Provides Key Support
The weekly chart of Ethereum shows the market attempting to stabilize after a sharp decline in the $4,500 region. ETH rebounded to $3,140 and regained its 100-week moving average (green line). This is a historically important support level that often defines the boundary between medium-term bullish and bearish phases. This bounce represents renewed demand in an important area, especially after the strong wick rejection seen near $2,700 where buyers intervened aggressively.
However, Ethereum still faces significant resistance. The 50-week moving average (blue line), currently hovering near $3,400-$3,500, has turned into resistance and remains the next major obstacle for the bulls. The successful recovery of this zone will substantially improve ETH's technical structure and open the door to higher level challenges. Until then, the weekly trend remains neutral to slightly bearish.
Volume provides encouraging signals. The latest rebound comes amid a notable increase in buying activity compared to the previous week, suggesting interest in these lower levels has intensified. However, the broader structure shows a pattern of lower highs since August. This means that ETH will need to show follow-through to avoid a return to deeper consolidation.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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