Five charts that can predict Ethereum as rate cut approaches

Ethereum prices have been under pressure recently, soaking at $4,200 just days after reaching its record high of $5,000. This price drop can be explained by recent chain data. This reveals differences in market behavior.

Liquidity metrics such as Stablecoin supply and Defi deposits have fallen to months' lows. On the other hand, adoption metrics, including active addresses and transactions, are record highs.

This suggests that Ethereum may be moving from a yield-driven market to a utility-driven ecosystem, and that potential rate cuts in September could serve as a catalyst for the next price breakout.

Ethereum Stablecoin drops 34.27m ETH

• According to Defilama, Stablecoins' dollar market capitalization on the Ethereum Network is currently at $149.5 billion, representing the highest valuation ever.

• However, if measured in ETH terms, today's volume is 34.27 million ETK tokens, a lower figure compared to the 8,24 million ETH seen in April.

• Stablecoins serve as the main liquidity base for crypto trading, and its supply shrinkage often indicates that investors are withdrawing capital from the ecosystem.

• The current divergence between the all-time highs of dollar value for stable coins at Ethereum and the lower ETH volume can be explained by the high price of ETH tokens. A high ETH price means that the dollar value of Stablecoins is higher than the amount of tokens.

Related: Corporate finance and ETFs currently manage almost 8% of Ethereum supply

Defi TVL decreases to 20.88m ETH

In decentralized financial spaces, the total value locked to the Ethereum network is also decreasing to ETH volume. TVL is a measure of how much ETH is committed to protocols such as lending, staking, and agriculture.

• Ethereum's Defi TVL has dropped to 20.08 million ETH as of today, compared to 28.4 million in April.

• However, in terms of dollars, Ethereum TVL is close to the highest ever, worth $915.9 billion.

• In July 2021, TVL had an ETH of 29 million, with an all-time high of $106.5 billion. It reached its lowest point in 2023, and at the time, ETH of around 12 million people was worth around $2 billion.

• This boom and bust cycle means investors pulled a ton of ETH from Defi during the recession, but then returned to show updated trust and activity in the Ethereum ecosystem.

The active address reaches 16.35m

In contrast to liquidity spills, network use has skyrocketed.

• Ethereum recorded 16.35 million active addresses. This is the highest level on record.

• This milestone reflects unprecedented wallet activity driven by the adoption of Layer 2 payments and broader institutional interest in blockchain settlements.

Daily transactions reach 50.29m

• Ethereum's activity levels are further highlighted by 505.9 million transactions each month, marking another high.

• This figure represents transactions between August 1st and August 30th. In particular, ETH daily transactions are 1.61 million.

• This sudden increase is because Layer-2 solutions allow for cheaper and faster transfers, making them more accessible for high frequency activities.

• Stablecoin transfers, small payments and speculative trading have driven the growth of the trading.

Turn to interest rate cuts in September

• Ethereum prices remain near the highest ever high, but have yet to establish a decisive breakout. Ethereum is about 11% below its $4,954 record high that it reached earlier this month.

• Analysts point out that chain momentum may not be enough to drive a rally without a return to liquidity.

• If September 2025 brings about rate cuts, as many would expect, capital could return to stubcoin and defi, and restore liquidity along with record activity.

• That combination could provide conditions for Ethereum to surpass its previous peak and set a new price record.

Ethereum ETF Outlook

• Ethereum ETF has discovered a total inflow of $13.533 billion since its launch, led by BlackRock's ETHA ($13.1 billion) and Fidelity's Feth ($2.8 billion).

• The daily routine remained volatile. BlackRock registered zero flow on Friday, but Fidelity saw a $51 million spill. The Grayscale ETF also recorded negative flows of $28.6 million and $61 million.

Is Ethereum ready to surge in September?

Ethereum's short-term outlook remains uncertain, with its prices fluctuating between $4,650 and under $4,500. To date, Ethereum is trading at $4,393, an increase of 0.5% over the last 24 hours, but a loss of 6.8% over the past week. Trading volumes skyrocketed to $43.6 billion, reflecting a 10% increase on the last day.

Together, these metrics show clear divergence. Liquidity has ended with Stablecoins and Defi, but usage is accelerating across the network. This highlights structural changes. From a capital-heavy, yield-earning market to a utility-driven ecosystem where activities are growth engines rather than locked funds.

Look ahead and see what's going forward, as September 2025 offers the expected rate reduction. Liquidity could return to the system. When combined with record-breaking network activity, this environment can cause a large impulse movement that exceeds previous highs.

Disclaimer: This article is based on insights and forecasts shared by market influencers and analysts. Coidedition has integrated and contextualized these views, but readers need to treat content as information rather than financial advice.