“Forget Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle; this market is different,” says analyst

According to crypto analyst Michael Van de Poppe, the current market cycle has proven to be different in every way.

Van de Poppe cites three things that might support this claim. First, “Uptober” has become “Downtober.” The cryptocurrency market saw a historic decline last weekend. Following the October 10 flash crash, the largest in cryptocurrency history, $19 billion in leveraged bets were liquidated. Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies are currently falling in October, which is historically considered a bullish month for the market.

According to the crypto analyst, the second and third reasons are that altcoins did not break out at “exactly” the same time as previous cycles, and that Bitcoin hit new highs before the halving.

The last Bitcoin halving occurred on April 20, 2024, when Bitcoin's block reward decreased from 6.25 to 3.125. Bitcoin hit a new high of $73,835 in March 2024, one month before the halving event. Bitcoin’s current high reached $126,198 on October 6, 2025.

Have you forgotten about the 4-year cycle?

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $111,830, down 11.53% from this month's all-time high of $126,198.

Van de Poppe expressed no surprise that a bear market may be imminent, saying, “I'm not worried that a bear market has started.”

To officially enter a bear market, Bitcoin price needs to fall 20% from its current high and maintain that high. In this light, Van de Poppe declared the end of Bitcoin's four-year cycle, saying, “I think the whole theory of the four-year cycle should be erased because it doesn't exist anymore.”

“This cycle is going to be much longer, and as I said before, I think we're in the third quarter of 2019,” van de Poppe said, hinting that the current cycle could be longer than four years, adding: “That means another 1.5 to 2 years.”