After volatility has increased, Bitcoin has been trading over $110,800. However, analysts warn that the next move for assets will depend on ETF flows and on the tug-of-war of liquidity in Asia and the US.
The data suggests that regional flows play a much greater role than ETF headings in shaping the short-term orbit of Bitcoin.
The True Catalyst of Bitcoin
According to the latest reports shared by Cryptoquant, on-chain and exchange data clarifies this pattern. Asia often illuminates the first spark with aggressive trading activities, but the US decides whether to ignite uninterrupted rally.
Coinbase Netflows acts as a reliable proxy for institutional appetite, as consistent outflows indicate long-term accumulation by US-based entities.
A further test of this is the Coinbase Premium Index (CPI), which measures the price gap between the Coinbase USD market and the Binance USDT pair. Positive CPIs have historically been associated with durable gatherings as they demonstrate that US demand is actively supporting higher prices.
Meanwhile, Binance Netflows reveals Asian influences. This is often linked to short-term sentiment and retail positioning. Typically, large influxes will sell sales pressure, while outflows suggest active infiltration.
The Korean Premium Index (KPI), widely known as the “Kimchi Premium,” tracking sentiment in the Korean market, now refers to a medium premium that shows healthy demand, but measurements above 5% warn of speculative overload. Together, these indicators reveal a constant balance of forces rather than a single dominant driver.
If US institutional demand and Asian retail enthusiasm match – Bitcoin rallies tend to accelerate with global momentum, as reflected simultaneously in both CPI and KPI flash greens. However, as leadership moves between two regions, the market experiences an increasing volatility and a sharp inherent shaking.
This evolving structure challenges the outdated notion that “whales drive markets,” and instead shows that local liquidity determines price behavior.
Looking forward to Q4, the true catalyst for Bitcoin's next leg to be high, coupled with Asia's continued ability to absorb supply, will be a critical positive change in Coinbase Premium. This sync believes it could turn sparks into a sustained gathering, considering it is encrypted.
Bitcoin is not intoxicated yet
Bitcoin's market sentiment has entered the “faith and optimism” phase as the net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) indicator is currently at 0.52. Previously, this 0.5-0.6 range triggered an accelerated price movement, but peaks in 2013, 2017 and 2021 occurred when NUPL reached 0.7-0.8.
Experts say short-term profit acquisitions could begin to be revised, but medium-term outlook refers to continuing upward momentum. If the pattern is repeated, Bitcoin could surge towards the $120,000 to $150,000 range. Importantly, the assets are not yet in the “euphoric” zone.
