The Bitcoin (BTC) market is experiencing a period of uncertainty characterized by geopolitical and macroeconomic factors, pushing the asset's price towards support above USD 105,000 last week.
Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle, dominated by halvings and characterized by stages of accumulation, euphoria, and correction, has collapsed, according to a financial analyst and commentator known as “Crypto Kakarot.”
That's because the US Federal Reserve has “kept interest rates very high for far longer than necessary,” analysts say. that, In addition to that, international tensions between the country and China are also increasing.
This is in line with the views of BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes, who claims that the traditional Bitcoin cycle is “dead.” This is due to the stimulus measures planned by major economies. Could create a liquidity injection that would benefit BTCchanging the 4-year historical pattern.
Crypto Kakarot argues that “the rules of the game have changed” and that “the Fed moratorium and geopolitical instability have only slightly delayed the inevitable.” As you can see, the cryptocurrency market is no longer dominated by retail investors. It currently relies on large institutional funds.
“We're no longer competing with typical Internet geeks; now we're competing with the biggest capitals in the world,” he says. The latter refers to the large-scale entry of institutional investors and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) into the Bitcoin ecosystem.
The financial commentator also shared a graph showing Bitcoin's movements since the past four halvings. According to him, this is indicative of the impending delay for BTC due to macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions.
The international context supports this interpretation. Representatives from the United States and China confirmed they will hold new trade talks in Malaysia next week. The move is aimed at easing tensions ahead of a meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The US president has minimized the threat of new tariffs, but financial markets are reacting cautiously. Waiting for a permanent truce.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng agreed to: Dialogue will be the key to reorienting bilateral relations. The talks come as the deadline for a tariff ceasefire agreed in January approaches, increasing pressure on both countries' economies, raw materials and digital asset markets.
Last Friday, October 10th, we Bitcoin price plummets from $122,000 to $103,000 After President Trump raised the possibility of inciting a trade war with China. The asset price then recovered to $115,000, but the same geopolitical situation caused BTC to fall again. According to the CriptoNoticias price calculator, at the time of writing this report, the average price of BTC is USD 107,000.
Fear has surged in the market due to the fall in BTC prices, with the Fear and Greed Index currently reaching a value of 27 points, reflecting the dominance of fear in the sector.
