Polymarket bettors currently have a 74% chance of winning a race up to $5,000 in gold.
Gold is currently trading around $4,480, which means it is only 10% away from the target. Meanwhile, ETH remains below $3,000.
great year of gold
Gold prices had their best year in modern history, rising about 60-65% in 2025 alone. This “historic rise” is being driven by a perfect storm of four key factors.
Investors are increasingly concerned about rising U.S. government debt and fiscal sustainability. They are buying gold as insurance against “ground failure.”
Central banks, particularly in China and emerging markets, are buying gold at a record pace to diversify their foreign exchange reserves away from the U.S. dollar.
Gold’s status as a “safe haven” asset attracts large amounts of capital not only due to conflict but also trade tensions.
BitMine-driven hype fades away
Earlier this year, BitMine made an aggressive pivot to become an Ethereum Treasury company. With support from Tom Lee of Fundstrat, BitMine accumulated over 4 million ETH (about 3.3% of total supply) by late 2025.
In Q3 2025, the price of Ethereum increased due to BitMine's aggressive buying. Investors bought BitMine stock (BMNR) as a leveraged bet against ETH.
The premium for DAT stock has evaporated. BitMine and others began trading at a discount to their net asset value (NAV). In the past, the stock price traded cheaper than the ETH held.
During this very period (July 2025), the Spot Ethereum ETF saw heavy inflows for 13 consecutive days. These products secured $4 billion in new capital virtually instantly. Institutional investors used ETFs to “get ahead” of buying pressure on Bitmine.
This super bullish combination has allowed Ethereum to emerge very close to the $5,000 psychological barrier.
However, this momentum quickly stalled and the Ethereum bull market lost momentum.
