For over a decade, October has been one of the most bullish months for Bitcoin.
To date, we have averaged returns of approximately 22.5%, supported by post-summer liquidity, year-end portfolio positioning, and more recently, steady demand from US investment products.
As a result, confidence in the pattern was high again this year. And true to form, Bitcoin set a new record above $126,000 in the first week of the month as traders quickly brought back the familiar “Uptober” slogan.
But the temporary selloff wiped out the initial gains within days, and unlike tech stocks and other risk assets, Bitcoin never regained its value.
As a result, the month's closing price fell, the meme failed, and the market was reminded that slogans don't absorb supply.
Echoes of 2018
What's remarkable about this October is that it rhymes so well with 2018.
At that time, October simply stopped rising and did not collapse. November and December saw a sharp decline as normal seasonal tailwinds weakened, with Bitcoin falling more than 36% in November alone.
The conclusion was simple. When prices don't rise even in historically strong months, it means underlying weakness is already in play. That weakness can be caused by oversupply, declining demand, or even tight macroeconomic conditions.
There is a similar atmosphere this year. Calendar did not stop working. Rather, the market entered October exhausted.
After a strong first three quarters, traders' positions were heavy, liquidity was uneven, and long-term holders started taking profits at every sign of strength.
Why did Bitcoin price drop in October?
On-chain data explains much of why Bitcoin prices slumped in October.
Long-term BTC holders have been steadily spending their coins since mid-July, with realized sales increasing from about $1 billion a day to $2 billion to $3 billion a day by early October, according to data from blockchain analytics platform Glassnode.
It states:
“Filtering by age cohort, we find that holders between 6 million and 12 million were driving more than 50% of the recent selling pressure, especially in the later stages of the top formation. At an ATH of around $126,000, their spending exceeded $648 million per day (7D-SMA), more than five times the baseline in early 2025.”
Importantly, this distribution was not a panic surge like previous capitulation events. Gradually, tenaciously, it displayed all its strength.
The company said many of the coins came from wallets purchased for between $70,000 and $96,000, with an average cost of nearly $93,000.
This suggests that the move is more about profit-taking after a strong performance rather than concerns about an economic downturn.
At the same time, Bitcoin's slump was further exacerbated by the fact that the number of buyers decreased significantly in October.
Cryptoquant, a cryptocurrency analysis platform, noted in its weekly report that U.S. investor appetite across spot markets, ETFs, and futures has slowed noticeably following the late September rally.
In fact, ETF inflows have cooled significantly to less than 1,000 BTC/day, significantly lower than the average of over 2,500 BTC/day seen at the start of this cycle's major bull market.
Furthermore, the spot currency premium narrowed and the forward basis retreated.
Moreno said these were signals that U.S. buyers were pulling back at a time when long-term holders were selling more.
On the other hand, the macro background also amplified the drag.
This year has been dominated by trade tensions, particularly between the US and China and the flare-up in the Middle East. The Federal Reserve also continues to take a restrictive policy stance to maintain tight global dollar liquidity.
Considering all this, research platform Cronos characterized October's pullback as a “liquidity strain rather than a trend break,” noting that despite the flush out of leveraged longs, Bitcoin still serves as a relative safe haven.
What’s next for BTC?
An uncomfortable similarity for bulls is that last year's Red October preceded a difficult year-end.
In 2018, the loss of seasonal support, thinning liquidity and more decisive distributions to long-term holders forced buyers to sit back a few feet and wait.
But today's market is healthier. That's because the investor base is deeper, stablecoins have greater liquidity, and regulated products can now offer slower, more stable bidding that didn't exist seven years ago.
With this in mind, BRN head of research Timothy Missil described the current regime as a market that is “recalibrating rather than collapsing,” adding that as long as Bitcoin remains above the $107,000 to $110,000 zone, institutional accumulation will continue behind the scenes.
Still, October's print edition changes the conversation. If Bitcoin fails to rise during the month it typically rises, the burden of proof shifts to the bulls.
The final two months of the year are likely to be determined less by Uptober memes and more by whether long-term holder spending cools again toward $1 billion a day and whether U.S. ETF flows reaccelerate.
If supply remains high and regulatory bids remain light, 2025 could be a volatile and frustrating year-end similar to 2018. But once flows return and geopolitics settles, October could be less of a start and more of a short, orderly handover from old to new holders.
