A new study from Cryptocurrency Analysis Firm Cane Island reveals notable facts about the supply dynamics of Bitcoin.
According to the company's report, more than 6 million Bitcoin will be irreparably lost by mid-2025. This number exceeded 4 million in 2020. If the current trend continues, the amount of BTC lost by September 2025 is expected to exceed 7 million.
According to Kane Island, these losses are primarily caused by loss of private keys, physical destruction of hardware wallets, or users who die without leaving their heirs. This includes sending BTC to an irrevocable address through a “burning” transaction.
The survey points to a decline in the annual BTC loss rate in recent years. The annual loss rate, which was 4% in 2020, fell to 3.3% by 2025. This decline was achieved through increased multi-sig wallets, institutional custody solutions and user education. However, the absolute losses naturally continue to increase over time.
The Cane Island report also includes important warnings. Bitcoin's reported market value does not reflect reality. The calculations take into account the entire supply, so about a third of that is no longer an economic cycle. Researchers suggest that true market value can be up to 50% lower than the current calculation.
Nakamoto at, the founder of Bitcoin, touched on the issue in the following words at the Bitcointalk forum in 2010:
“The lost coins make others' coins a little more worth. Think of them as donations to everyone.”
This perspective, combined with Bitcoin's decentralized nature and limited supply model, reinforces the idea that a circulating coin increases the rarity of the remaining BTC.
*This is not investment advice.
