In a world with an uncertain economic map, investors are looking for safe havens. Gold, the eternal guardian of wealth, and Bitcoin (BTC), the paradigm-subverting digital asset, are competing for the same capital.
Waves of change signal as precious metals reach all-time highs 'Digital gold' could be poised to capture a significant portion of that capital flow.
Gold rose 58% to a record price of $4,300 an ounce, making it a key player in 2025. This increase was due to a combination of factors: monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve (FED) and unprecedented structural demand from central banks, particularly in emerging markets.
Goldman Sachs Research's Lina Thomas said gold purchases by these institutions have increased fivefold since 2022, after the invasion of Ukraine froze Russia's foreign exchange reserves. “This reflects a structural change in reserve management that will not be reversed anytime soon,” he says.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, has shown impressive performance. Prices have increased by 63% over the last yearas seen in the chart, reached an all-time high of $126,000 in early October 2025.
However, a strong correction pushed it up to levels close to $102,000. Despite this volatility, digital currencies maintain a strong narrative as a store of value. Gold price correction due to possible overvaluation May trigger a shift of capital to digital assets and strengthen their position as an alternative to gold.
The power of Bitcoin
Demand through U.S. spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has been the main driver of Bitcoin's rally this cycle. These instruments have brought massive capital flows into digital assets.
The IBIT ETF is managed by BlackRock, the largest in the market, with 804,944 BTC under management. Equivalent to 3.8% of the total Bitcoin supply.
This rise reflects growing confidence in digital currencies as legitimate investment assets that can compete with gold in the minds of institutional investors.
Possibility of explosive capital turnover
Investment firm Bitwise predicts a scenario that illustrates the impact of this dynamic. If only 5% of the capital invested in gold is transferred to Bitcoin; Digital currency price could reach $242,391.
Even if sales were more modest at 3% to 4%, the current value would double to more than $215,000. “Sentiment indicators indicate that sellers are depleted, which limits downside risk and signals an impending rebound for Bitcoin,” the company's report said.
The following graph simulates the price of Bitcoin if a portion of the total gold supply were invested in BTC.
This possibility is explained by the asymmetry of capitalization in both markets. The gold market is worth over $16 trillion, but Bitcoin, which accounts for over 50% of the digital asset market capitalization ($2.2 trillion), has much more room for growth. A small portion of gold capital could radically change the price of BTC.
Macro and micro factors driving the transition to Bitcoin
For this capital turnover to take place on a large scale, a certain combination of conditions is needed, said Cristóbal Pereira, executive director of Digital Asset Hub Latintum, in a conversation with CriptoNoticias.
From a macroeconomic perspective, Pereira said, “The sustained decline in US interest rates in 2020 drove demand for alternative assets. Bitcoin rose 314% that year after the Fed cut rates.”
According to a report from CriptoNoticias, the next Fed meeting will be on October 29, 2025, and another rate cut could be confirmed. This is an event in which both Pereira and Bitwise will participate The impact is considered positive for digital assets, albeit with some lag..
Additionally, Mr. Pereira emphasizes the importance of resolving global tensions, such as the trade war between the United States and China and the vulnerability of private credit. “Reducing financial uncertainty would pave the way for investors to consider Bitcoin as a viable alternative to gold,” he explains.
At the microeconomic level, he says, institutional adoption and a clearer regulatory framework are “obvious catalysts to accelerate the transition from gold to Bitcoin as a digital store of value.” Efforts like the GENIUS Act, which seeks to establish precise rules for digital assets, could cement confidence in Bitcoin as a safe asset.
“Bitcoin's volatility, which has come down from 100% in 2013 to the 30% to 35% range now, is not a hindrance,” Pereira said. “Programmed scarcity, traceability and independence from monetary policy make this market increasingly attractive,” he added.
Gold will not concede easily to Bitcoin
Despite the enthusiasm for Bitcoin, gold maintains structural strength. Goldman Sachs predicts central banks in developing countries will continue to accumulate gold for at least another three years due to diversification strategies in emerging markets.
“These banks have significantly lower allocations to gold than their developed market peers and are closing the gap,” Thomas explains.
Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, predicts the price of gold will reach $5,000 an ounce by 2026. Could reach $10,000 between 2028 and 2029. This outlook suggests that the metal will not lose relevance anytime soon, but profit-taking after the rally could open the door for Bitcoin.
“While gold is more responsive to monetary policy and the dollar, Bitcoin is more tied to global growth expectations,” Bitwise said, underscoring the complementary dynamics between both assets.
Bitcoin, the new digital haven
In a difficult economic environment, the theory that Bitcoin is “digital gold” is gaining strength. Unlike gold, whose performance is highly dependent on traditional factors such as monetary policy, Bitcoin offers a unique profile: Increased decentralization, planned scarcity, and institutional implementationdriven by ETFs and other vehicles.
Public companies and governments already see it as a store of value, and increased liquidity reduces historical volatility.
Pereira doesn't think Bitwise's prediction that Bitcoin will reach $240,000 in three to five years is unreasonable.
“This scenario is plausible given the size of the capital, which accounts for more than half of the digital asset market, and the increasing adoption by institutional investors,” he says. But the path is not without obstacles, he warns.. Macroeconomic uncertainty and the need for a clear regulatory framework are decisive factors.
long term career
Although the race between gold and Bitcoin is not a zero-sum game, there is no denying that the digital currency has the potential to raise funds. A correction in gold prices, coupled with a favorable macroeconomic environment and regulatory developments, could accelerate this transition.
While gold remains a traditional safe-haven asset, Bitcoin has emerged as a modern alternative and is poised to take advantage of changing investor preferences.
In this scenario, moderate capital turnover from gold could redefine the digital asset market. With the Fed meeting just around the corner, Bitcoin prices up 63% in the last year, and ETF traction gaining traction, the coming months will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin can establish itself as the new “digital gold.”
