Bitcoin shortened $100,000 to less than $100,000, along with retaliatory attacks against Israeli and US bases in Qatar during a 12-day conflict, including a US strike against Israel and Iran.
The markets shook until US President Donald Trump confirmed that both Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire. The announcement sparked a rebound of global risk sentiment. When investor trust returned, Bitcoin broke through the $106,000 level on Wednesday and launched a new rally.
New data suggests that crypto assets will be seen potential surges up to $120,000 amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
The beginning of a new bull's legs?
Bitcoin may be ready for a sudden upward movement that could potentially reach $120,000 after successfully collecting its 50-day index moving average (EMA). According to Cryptoquant, the 50-day EMA is widely regarded as a key technical indicator and often serves as support and support during the correction of broader bullish trends.
Historically, when Bitcoin falls below this level and quickly regains it, the market has tended to respond with a rapid 10-20% spike. This pattern is happening again. Following a short pullback under the EMA, Bitcoin has been closed on it for three consecutive days, indicating a new bullish momentum.
Cryptoquant explained that this recovery can start a new leg in the ongoing cycle. However, they warn that external geopolitical factors, particularly developments associated with the US, Israel and Iran, could inject short-term volatility into the market. In this environment, traders need to avoid excessive leverage and maintain a risk-managed approach. Currently, technical indicators support bullish outlook, but broader macros and geopolitical uncertainty continue to cause potential headwinds.
Nevertheless, the 50-day EMA recall remains a significant milestone for Bitcoin, bolstering the case of rally potential towards the six-figure mark.
Psychological floor
Beyond technical metrics, on-chain metrics also support Bitcoin's current momentum, particularly short-term holders' actions.
The Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH-RP) is currently at $98,000 and continues to serve as important psychological and technical support for Bitcoin. As it is heading towards $10,000, each increase will strengthen new numbers perceived as new “fair value.” Bitcoin's spot price is $106.4K, a 7.2% premium over STH-RP, suggesting a decrease in “bubbles.”
The STH-RP's recent sharp bouncing confirms a bullish structure, but long-term holders remain in motion, with a cost base of $32,000. This veteran supply lockup limits downside risk. As long as the cryptocurrency is held above STH-RP, the higher and higher rises remain intact. The following breaks indicate potential fixes
