More than half of Bitcoin's circular supply has not moved in 12 months. This is a structural feature that shapes the way the market absorbs demand at the end of the year.
About 61% of coins are dormant for more than a year, with about 17% in the deepest cohort for more than a decade.
The latest HODL Waves Split is shown in 1 month at nearly 7-10 years, nearly 5-7 years, nearly 3-5 years, nearly 13%, 2-3 years, 7-3 years, nearly 11.5%, nearly 13%, 7-6 months, nearly 7.5%, nearly 9.5%, one to three months, and nearly 5%.
These bands are sensitive to measuring the supply due to the movement of the final chain, rather than the change in total supply, and binning and exchanging tagging options between providers.
The HODL Waves, which realizes a weight band on a cost basis rather than a coin count, can reveal the economic weight of the owner. This is a valuable lens for finding out whether meetings are thin, relying on short-term floats or broader balance sheet beliefs.
Supply profiles intersect with the background of demand shaped by regulated funding and macropolicies. In the week ended October 4th, Crypto Exchange-Traded products had net inflows led by US Spot products at approximately $5.95 billion.
At a price of around $125,000 per Bitcoin, the week of $5.95 billion means absorption of around 47,600 BTC. This corresponds to about 0.24% of the circulation supply if such a pace lasts for a week.
This framing does not assume a constant inflow. It sets a baseline for the size and behavior of shorter age cohorts.
Short-term supply remains meaningful.
Based on the latest readings, the 1-3 month, 3-6 month, and 6-12 month combinations account for about 30-35% of the supply. This is the band mix that is most sensitive to price and most sensitive to macroshifts.
These cohorts tend to achieve benefits for strength, whereas groups over the age of 2 usually rotate slowly. One of the cross-checks on whether seniors are revived is that Coinday will be destroyed.
By tracking the 90-day moving average of CDDs along with price per bitbo, you can identify revival spikes from long coins compared to the quiet accumulation period that the coin age continues to build.
A drop to a steady CDD trend to a low price means a modest distribution from long-term holders, but with volatility, the rapid CDD rises, often marking aging coins that often hit the market.
Macro policies can affect flow mixing and disposal of mid-age holders by the end of the year. The Federal Reserve cut 25 basis points in September, and a summary of its economic forecasts pointed to additional easing in 2025.
Median pass means lower policy rates for next year.
In terms of inflation, US consumer prices rose 2.9% year-on-year in August.
The disinfection trend remains uneven, but has eased from previous peaks. Mitigated inflation and progressive policy mitigation paths can compress real yields at margins. This is a mix that has historically supported risk appetite, including flows to Bitcoin Link products, but the causal chain is probabilistic rather than deterministic.
Supply demand mathematics can be assembled in a simple scenario that maps fund flows to floats available from Shorteage Bands. Using the same price anchor for comparability, a net inflow of $1 billion, at $125,000 per BTC, absorbs about 8,000 BTC.
The $0.5-2 billion range per week means 4,000-16,000 BTC per week. This can be compared to the plausible monthly rotation rate from a 1-12-month cohort.
If these bands have 30% of the supply, a 5% rotation of each month releases around 0.05 x 0.30 x 19.7 million, or about 295,500 btc in a month, an average of 73,900 btc per week.
That number overwhelms the inflow pace of $0.5-2 billion, but the turnover is rarely uniform and often focuses on price events and derivative positioning.
If the rotation drops to 1% a month, the weekly release will be close to 14,800 BTC. This is a scale that can completely offset the $2 billion inflow week.
The purpose of modeling is not to modify forecasts, but to define the threshold at which demand is absorbed or absorbed by the short-term supply stack.
| It was a band | About Share |
|---|---|
| > 10 years | ~17% |
| 7-10 years | ~8% |
| 5-7 years | ~5% |
| 3-5 years | ~13% |
| 2-3 years | ~7% |
| 1-2 years | ~11.5% |
| 6-12 months | ~13% |
| 3-6 months | ~7.5% |
| 1-3 months | ~9.5% |
| ~5% |
Another lens is a realised cap HODL wave that tracks the share of the realised value held by the age band. An increase in the share of older bands due to realised value means an increase in the economic footprint of long-term holders.
If CDDs are trapped until the end of the year and the realized cap HODL waves are getting older, the gatherings may rely on fresh capital than on the thin side provided by holders with higher cost-based discipline.
Conversely, when the CDD climbs while the ETP plays slowly, the resurrected coin resets age, and the middle-aged band expands.
| scenario | We assume the net ETP flow every week | Implicit BTC is absorbed and weekly | A short era of rotation, every month | Implicit BTC was released every week |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low demand | 0.5 billion dollars | ~4,000 | 5% | ~73,900 |
| base | $1.5 billion | ~12,000 | 2% | ~29,600 |
| High demand | $4 billion | ~32,000 | 1% | ~14,800 |
In this context, exchange balance remains the monitored metric.
According to multiple public dashboards, the balance held in central exchange is near multi-year lows, but this metric should be wary. Wallet practices, non-exchange payments, and internalization can reduce the exchange count without changing the marketable float.
Exchange tagging is incomplete and should be combined with other signals, such as order depth, futures standards, and age flow in the chain, before closing the supply shock.
The price context frames these flows and bands, but does not change accounting.
Bitcoin took part in price discovery this week, overlapping with strong fund flow week. Whether such influx will persist depends on risk appetite and policy expectations.
If inflation measures approach the recent 2.9% annual pace and policy guidance trend towards a gradual easing, there is room for continuous allocation from vehicles that previously did not hold Bitcoin.
When inflation becomes re-extreme or policy guidance is restricted, shorter age bands can offer more inventory as trader derisks.
The task for the next few weeks is to track three elements in tandem.
First, the weekly ETP netflow is absorbed compared to 8,000 BTC per billion, and coin shares are aggregated as baselines.
Second, the 90-day trends and revivals of CDDs are against price.
Third, HODL tilts on both coin count and realised value basis.
Together, these series explain whether the market is drawn from a deep patient base or from a near-stock inventory that reversibly reverses faster. This will determine how the significantly aged supply stack and further demand interact through October.
