Vitalik Buterin warns that 20% chance quantum computers could undermine encryption before 2030.
Metacruz predicts the median timeline of 2040 for quantum computers that break the latest cryptographic defense.
Researchers explore post-Quantum crypto, ZK proof and Stark to ensure the future of blockchain.
Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum, raised new concerns about the future of encryption in the age of quantum computing. Vitalik warns that Quantum Computers could break today's encryption by around 2040, and there's about a 20% chance that this could happen before 2030.
Why quantum is important for cryptography
Encryption ensures not only passwords and private emails, but the entire digital economy. From online banking to cryptocurrency wallets and smart contracts, everything relies on algorithms designed to resist attacks from classic computers.
However, powerful quantum machines can crack these defenses much faster, making everything from financial assets to personal data at risk.
Ian Myers raises health concerns
Ian Myers explained that the real problem isn't just the possibility that future attackers will destroy old data. Instead, the deeper concern is soundness, ensuring that cryptographic systems, including blockchains, remain reliable even for the power of quantum computing.
The lack of market will certainly prevent it if nothing else.
I don't know if quantum changes in the short term. Or all you need is: Groth16 and others are statistically zero knowledge, so it must be a Quantum Private (not Sound) IIRC post.
– Ian Miers (@secparam) August 27, 2025
He pointed out that Starks, an encrypted proof system, could be pushed to evolve into a more zero-knowledge (ZK) structure. This shift could occur when they compete with the Postquantumb Sound and ZK scheme, but he left an unresolved question: Are those incentives sufficient to ensure long-term safety?
Vitalik Buterin brings predictions into conversation
In response to Miers, Vitalik Buterin highlighted predictions from the prediction platform Metacruz. According to the data, the median estimate for quantum computers could break encryption today is 2040, but the chances of occurring before 2030 are about 20%.
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This reminder highlights that while the threat may not be felt immediately, it is close enough on the horizon to call for serious attention today.
Metaculus median when Quantum Computers breaks latest encryption is 2040: https://t.co/li8ni8a9ox
By the end of 2030 there appears to be a 20% chance.
– vitalik.eth (@vitalikbuterin) August 27, 2025
Building a future of mass
Despite the risks, the crypto community is not standing still. Researchers are already working on post-Quantum encryption, a new algorithm designed to withstand quantum attacks.
At the same time, ZK-Proofs and Starks continue to evolve, demonstrating the potential for more resilient systems.
