As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to face short-term downward pressure, expert analysis reveals key levels that BTC must maintain to maintain long-term bullish momentum.
In a recent X post, technical analyst Rekt Capital discussed recent Bitcoin price movements and possible future outcomes. This update came as BTC fell below the $95,000 level on November 14, causing more than $1.3 billion in liquidations in a single day.
Bitcoin forms a cluster of lows at the 50-week EMA
Rekt Capital analysis reveals that Bitcoin has been trending downward for the past six weeks since being rejected above $126,000 in October 2025. This move caused Bitcoin's price to fall to the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) line, where buyers showed strength last week, sparking a rebound. As seen in another chart he shared, the EMA crossed at BTC price $101,285.
As highlighted in the attached chart, BTC formed a cluster of lows at the 50-week EMA from June to September 2024 before its price skyrocketed from around $51,000 to over $107,000 in December 2024.
According to data from CoinMarketCap, the same candlestick pattern played out between February and May 2025. This time, BTC rose from around $72,000 to an all-time high of $126,198 in October 2025.
BTC weekly closing price determines price direction
Notably, BTC is trading at $94,830 at the time of writing, down 5.1% over the past week. It has fallen more than 7% in the past 24 hours. Although Bitcoin has shown short-term weakness, Recto Capital noted in its weekly outlook that the leading cryptocurrency still has a bullish market structure.
However, he stressed that Bitcoin needs to close above this week's 50 EMA line or risk invalidating the bullish market structure.
“Bitcoin needs to close above the 50 EMA for the week to maintain the bullish market structure,” he wrote. Of note, the 50-week EMA has crossed Bitcoin price at $101,285. To regain this level, BTC would need to rise by more than 6.8% from current levels.
