Bitcoin (BTC) entered the first week of November 2025 with a bearish outlook. After ending October with a 3.69% decline, BTC price fell 3% on Monday, November 3rd, and was trading at around $107,259 at the time of writing.
Bitcoin's continued volatile outlook raises medium-term concerns about further capitulation. The crypto fear and greed index is hovering around 36, indicating fear among traders, according to market data analysis from Binance-backed CoinMarketCap.
Is the Bitcoin bull market over?
Will November be as bearish as it was in 2018?
According to CryptoQuant market data analysis, the 365-day moving average (MA) suggests a potential cycle top. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin prices could be on a downward trend for months and weeks.
Medium-term bearish sentiment for Bitcoin prices was exaggerated by October's bearish closing price for the first time in six years. Notably, the last time Bitcoin prices had a negative monthly close in October was in 2018, after which they fell 36% in November and 5% in December.
Long-term BTC whales are on sale
Medium-term bearish sentiment for Bitcoin is reinforced by low demand among long-term holders. According to market data from CryptoQuant, this long-term Bitcoin investor has offloaded 405,000 BTC in the past 30 days.
The notable decline in BTC from long-term investors coincides with weaker demand from financial institutions such as Strategies, whose weekly purchases are significantly lower than at the beginning of this year.
Will a BTC euphoria occur?
Whales' unrealized gains are not euphoric yet
CryptoQuant’s on-chain data analysis shows that Bitcoin whales’ unrealized gains have not reached the extreme levels of previous bull market cycles.
Therefore, Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, pointed out that either the Bitcoin bull market has not happened yet or the crypto market is too big to achieve extreme profit margins.
Related: $2 trillion Bitcoin still faces psychological risks Newton learned the hard way
Retesting of key support levels increases uncertainty jitter
sauce: TradingView
From a technical analysis perspective, the BTC/USD pair is retesting an important support level. On a weekly time frame, the BTC/USD pair will either rebound towards the 2025 bull market high or capitulate towards $69,000.
If the BTC/USD pair recovers from its current support level, analysts led by Tom Lee and Arthur Hayes expect the asset to reach at least $200,000. Bullish sentiment towards Bitcoin is prevailing on the back of expected capital rotation away from gold, which recently hinted at the top of the bull market.
Related: Bitcoin Price Prediction: Analysts Eye $115K Breakout as November Seasonality Becomes Bullish
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article is for informational and educational purposes only. This article does not constitute financial advice or advice of any kind. Coin Edition is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of the use of the content, products, or services mentioned. We encourage our readers to do their due diligence before taking any action related to our company.
