The forecast market, which began as an academic platform focused on political forecasts, is preparing to commence a new exchange after obtaining a nod from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Predictit, run by DC-based Aristole, said last week that it approved applications for CFTC to operate as both a designated contract market, DCM and derivative clearing organization, or DCO.
“With these approvals, Aristotle will launch new exchanges designed to provide traders with more diverse markets, deeper liquidity and wider participation,” the company said in a press release last week.
The company plans to expand beyond just the political market, but has yet to provide details on the specific market types it plans to deploy. “As with other DCMSs, the market offering is divergent,” said an Aristotle spokesperson. Decryption, It refers to other regulated forecast markets like Kalshi. At the moment, no other specific details have been made,” the spokesman said.
The company said the platform has now included more than 400,000 active users, but the forecast faces a long journey to gain these important approvals from US regulators.
The platform was originally launched in 2014 as an academic and real money forecast market run by Wellington Victoria University in New Zealand. Artistotle, Inc. is a DC-based political technology and data company founded in 1983 by John Artistotle Phillips. It is supported and operated by.
Phillips is CEO of Aristotle, Inc. It was not always clear whether he held the same title, but the spokesman confirmed he was doing so.
The 2014 launch progressed after the company obtained a NO action letter from CFTC. This allows us to “operate a non-profit market for event contracts and provide event contracts as designated contract markets, foreign trade committees, or SWAP execution facilities, and without operator registration.
Very simply, the regulators said that PredicatiT can allow users on the platform, under very limited conditions, not strictly for profit, without pursuing a DCM license.
In August 2022, the CFTC subsequently cancelled the action letter, claiming that the company was violating the narrow terms of the arrangement. By the summer of 2023, the Court of Appeals issued an injunction that allowed forecasts to continue while fighting the CFTC via a revoked letter.
Then in July of this year, PredictIT and the CFTC reached a settlement that Predictit could operate under the Predictit Market Research Consortium, a US-based nonprofit seeking 501(c)(3) status from the IRS.
Participate in the growth areas of our competitors. Karshi resumed the election market in the US last year after winning a court battle with the CFTC. Since then, it has expanded into the sports market, raised $185 million at a $2 billion valuation, hired a new head of crypto, accounting for more than half of the forecast market's trading volume. Meanwhile, Shayne Coplan, CEO of Polymarket, said the company nodded to operate its forecast market in the US after QCX, a license exchange acquired earlier this year, received its own action letter from CFTC.
The forecast market allows users to guess and place bets on the outcome of future events. The market allows users to sell stocks at any time. This means that investors can buy and resell the stock without having to wait to see how the market resolves.
But doing so often involves fees. For example, in Predictit, users who sell stocks for profit pay the company a 10% fee and a 5% fee to process the withdrawals.
Currently, one of the most active markets in PredictIT is the New York City Mayor's 2025 election, with 951,998 deals, and as of today he is strongly supportive of Zohran Mamdani winning with 81% odds. In the related market, users ranked second to Andrew Cuomo 73%. However, its participation in the market reached 140,655 trades. Myriad, a forecast market developed by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, now gives Mamdani an 82% chance of becoming the next mayor of New York City.
