Top industry analyst predicts Bitcoin hash rate will follow Moore's law

Analysts in the Bitcoin mining industry have come up with quite different views regarding the future trajectory of the network's hashrate.

Bob Barnett, CEO of Barefoot Mining, doesn't think Bitcoin's hashrate will increase rapidly.

“The increase in hashrate in the foreseeable future will likely follow Moore's Law,” he said.

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Dr. Jeff Ross, founder of Balshire Capital Management, predicted that Bitcoin's hashrate could skyrocket this year.

The main impetus is believed to be the reinstatement of 100% bonus depreciation in the 2026 update of the U.S. tax code. This provision allows miners to immediately depreciate new infrastructure in the year of purchase, instead of depreciating the entire amount over 10 years.

“So if you want to build a data center or a manufacturing center and buy a bunch of equipment, or if you’re a Bitcoin miner and buy a bunch of ASICs and connect them, you’re going to wait until January 2026 to do that. Why? Because then you get 100% depreciation right away in 2026,” he said.

This collapse in taxable income will force miners to “overinvest” in hardware to protect profits, Ross argues.

“Some Bitcoin miners will likely pay near-zero taxes in 2026 and possibly 2027, and because of this depreciation rule, they'll probably end up paying all the way to 2028,” he said.

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But Barnett clearly doesn't buy into this over-optimism. Analysts argue that electronics is actually the main bottleneck, with capital being a rather secondary issue.

“There is not enough incremental energy available to spike the hashrate,” Barnett noted in a recent analysis.

Grid interconnection backlogs in major mining hubs such as Texas are currently measured in years. Miners can purchase all the ASICs they need with tax savings. But without an energized transformer, those machines are just expensive paperweights.

Therefore, Barnett predicts that Bitcoin's hashrate growth curve will reflect Moore's Law.