Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded from $86,286 on December 2nd to $93,324 at the time of writing, an 8% increase, while the Trump family's American Bitcoin (ABTC) stock has fallen.
The rise in BTC prices can be attributed to an improving macro environment and Vanguard opening up access to crypto ETFs to tens of millions of customers.
At the same time, American Bitcoin, a Trump-linked mining stock that was touted as a proxy for Bitcoin, saw its intraday trading volume soar 50%, about 10 times normal levels, and caused repeated trading suspensions before settling down at about 35%.
The company's stock is now about 80% below its September high of $9.40, even though the assets it tracks staged a textbook rescue rally.
Because they reacted with completely different catalysts, the movement went in the opposite direction.
Bitcoin's rebound was due to favorable macroeconomic trends, such as the end of quantitative tightening by the Federal Reserve, increased probability of interest rate cuts, and expansion of ETF distribution channels. ABTC sold as the first large lock-up expiration freed up pre-merger and private placement shares, hitting a wall of new shares all at once into a small float fueled by hype.
The “proxy deal” breaks down because these two stories have little to do with each other within a 24-hour window.
This disconnect reveals what happens when leveraged, politically branded stock wrappers stop acting like something to be tracked. For months, ABTC traded as if it were a synthetic Bitcoin bet with a built-in Trump family premium.
Then the lockup expired, early investors dumped it, and it turned out that the proxy trade was just that: a trade, not a synthetic ETF.
How Bitcoin rallied towards $93,000
Bitcoin's rally could be related to the Fed officially ending quantitative tightening and futures markets pricing in a nearly 90% chance of further rate cuts at the December 10th FOMC meeting.
This change cushioned the “macro shock” that just sent BTC below $90,000. At the same time, a second tailwind emerged from the ETF channel. Vanguard, which had largely resisted anti-crypto measures, reversed course and opened up access to Bitcoin and other crypto ETFs to tens of millions of customers.
Although these developments do not change Bitcoin's float or capital structure, they do change the amount people are willing to pay for the same 21 million cap of assets.
Prices moved not because there were fundamental changes in the network itself, but because the macro environment improved and distribution channels expanded.
Why did ABTC slump anyway?
American Bitcoin is structurally different. The company is a majority-owned Hut 8 subsidiary that mines BTC and runs a “Bitcoin Accumulation” balance sheet strategy, with thousands of BTC on its books and is tasked with building a US-centric mining and treasury platform.
This setup has encouraged traders and some commentators to pitch ABTC as a “Bitcoin agency” or some kind of Trump-branded mini-strategy.
As part of the listing, the company raised about $220 million through private equity sales, and insiders have made it clear that they expect the company to trade on behalf of Bitcoin.
However, this crash was about stock supply, not hashpower or BTC price. The Dec. 2 plunge coincided with the first major lock-up deadline for pre-merger and privately placed shares.
Once the previously restricted blocks became freely tradeable, early investors released their shares onto the open market, and ABTC fell by about 35% to 50% during the day, with volumes about 10 times normal and causing repeated trading halts.
Management is openly positioning it as a technical event. Bitcoin America President Matt Prusak told investors at X that his team “expects volatility in the coming days as stocks find a new home.”
Meanwhile, Reuters reported that Hutt 8, Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. said they would not sell to Unlock and continue to hold onto it. But whether insiders sold or not is of little importance. Tens or hundreds of millions of dollars worth of previously caged stocks just hit a thin float in one shot. That is why ABTC has fallen even though BTC has risen.
Why was “proxy trading” discovered?
Three structural forces broke the ABTC/BTC link in this move, none of which resolved immediately.
First, the float has changed, but Bitcoin has not. The circulating supply of BTC is predictable and changes slowly. ABTC's free float soared as its pre-merger and private placement shares were unlocked.
As a result, the order book is full of sellers who paid a much lower price months ago and are willing to lock in profits or avoid risk regardless of how Bitcoin moves on any given day.
The results were exactly what the market expected. Bitcoin rose mid-single digits, while agents fell by almost half.
Second, ABTC is subject to stock-specific and Trump-specific risks that Bitcoin itself does not have. Trump-related crypto ventures, including meme coins like TRUMP and MELANIA, have fallen more than 90% since their peak.
Additionally, Trump Media & Technology Group has lost more than 60% of its value this year, and ALT5 Sigma, another Trump crypto venture that holds tokens, is under SEC scrutiny for a similar decline.
Once the “Trump Crypto Complex” goes into free fall, ABTC will stop trading as a pure macro-Bitcoin bet and it will be about politics and governance.
Third, miners are unique wrappers that are used even in normal times. ABTC's business is a strategy that leverages hash prices, power costs, execution, and financing terms, wrapped in a small-cap stock that just went public through a reverse merger.
Lockup expiration in such situations amplifies all other concerns. Investors worry about dilution, overhang, insider incentives, and the possibility that early backers know something they don't.
On one side of the chart, BTC just produced a textbook macro rescue rally. The Fed QT is over, the likelihood of a rate cut has increased, Vanguard has finally opened its doors to crypto ETFs, and flows into spot products have turned positive again.
Meanwhile, ABTC is digesting a completely different shock. The first wave of locked-up Trump-related miners hit the thin float in a sector where sentiment toward crypto stocks and Trump-branded tokens is already fragile.
This will give you a clear explanation of the difference. The reason the proxy broke was because it wasn't actually Bitcoin in the first place.
