Ethereum (ETH) is entering a phase that analysts say resembles the early stages of the strongest market cycles, with institutional accumulation, decline in exchange supply, and new offerings aimed at stabilizing the network economy.
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Sentiment on Wall Street has shifted dramatically recently as large investors have strengthened their positions and developers have looked for changes that could make trading fees more predictable. In many cases, the combination of supply tightening and improving fundamentals has created conditions that can support meaningful price adjustments.
ETH's price records some gains on the daily chart. Source: ETHUSD on Tradingview
As institutional accumulation accelerates, exchange supply strengthens.
Ethereum held on centralized exchanges has fallen to its lowest level since the network launched in 2015. Glassnode data shows balances fell to 8.7% of total supply last week, down 43% since July.
The decline is related to staking, layer 2 migrations, institutional custody and long-term treasury allocations, and those who rarely send their tokens to exchanges.
BitMine Immersion Technologies, currently the largest corporate holder of Ether, expanded its position by another $199 million over the weekend. The company manages $11.3 billion ETH, equivalent to approximately 3.08% of supply, and continues to purchase towards its 5% target.
ETFs also contributed to the decline, with cumulative inflows now exceeding $12 billion. Analysts note that nearly 40% of all ETH is tied up in staking or institutional products, creating one of the tightest supply environments the asset has ever experienced.
Technical analysts point out hidden signs of accumulation. The latest on-balance volume readings are above the resistance level despite the price remaining near $3,050. This is a difference that some interpret as indicating buying pressure.
Fee reform gets push as Vitalik Buterin proposes gas futures market.
Along with market activity, Vitalik Buterin's new economic proposals are also attracting attention. The Ethereum co-founder described an on-chain gas futures system that would allow users to lock in transaction fees for a future period.
This mechanism is similar to a traditional futures market and is designed to allow traders and developers to prepare for rapid increases in network demand.
Buterin argues that clearer forward pricing can support businesses that rely on predictable costs, especially as activity expands across staking, tokenization and decentralized applications. Although still in its infancy, the idea is seen as part of a broader effort to make Ethereum more stable as it scales.
Analysts identify conditions shaping larger cycles
Market commentators are increasingly citing a combination of declining supply, increasing institutional participation, and improving network efficiency as reasons why Ethereum could perform better in the next major cycle.
Some are comparing the current dynamics to Bitcoin eight years ago, noting that Ethereum's evolving economic model and expanding role in tokenized finance provide broader drivers than previous cycles.
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It remains unclear whether these developments will immediately lead to higher prices. But with exchange balances at record lows and institutions steadily accumulating, analysts agree that Ethereum is entering a structurally different phase defined by sustained demand rather than speculation.
Cover image by ChatGPT, ETHUSD chart by Tradingview
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