On Friday, October 10th, an earthquake struck the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin (BTC) plummeted from $122,000 to $103,000 as trade tensions between the US and China escalated. Shortly after, the price rebounded toward $110,000, but the impact left its mark.
Some analysts point to concerted movements in large futures positions, Signs of market manipulation In the midst of general panic.
The episode coincided with statements between the two economic powers about new tariffs and possible retaliation. Uncertainty shifts to major stock indexes; recorded a large-scale liquidation. In parallel, the cryptocurrency market liquidated approximately $19.4 billion in futures contracts.
All this begs the question: Has it been canceled? forever For Bitcoin? Will this be another anomaly in the history of BTC posting positive returns in the 10th month of this year? Three analysts specializing in this sector shared their thoughts with CriptoNoticias.
Before we continue, we need to define what “uptober” is. The word is derived from the combination of “up” and “october” and is assigned to the 10th month of each year, as it has historically been positive for BTC. Generally, Average return this month is 20%generally a green month for the market.
Uptober is over
Argentine technical analyst Emmanuel Juarez put it bluntly: “At the moment, forever Bitcoin has been cancelled. He explains that this has been a volatile month. This is due to intensifying trade tensions.
Juarez suggests that Bitcoin's movement this month hasn't been anything like value heavendifferent from gold. In his opinion, “this shows that Bitcoin has not yet fully integrated into the category.”
He added that “its actions remain related to general market sentiment and global liquidity levels.”
His words resonate given that the market crash on Friday October 10 had no impact on the price of gold. In fact, precious metals This week it opened at an all-time high.trading above USD 4,100 for the first time.
From a technical perspective, Juarez argues that the recent decline in Bitcoin is due to: Correction part of previous bullish structure. Therefore, if the asset price does not rise above $124,180, he believes “a bearish continuation remains likely, with an initial target of around $97,500.”
“Any pullback in the coming days could simply be a correction within that downward trend,” Juarez added, adding that the US government shutdown situation and the resulting lack of macroeconomic data will confront the Federal Reserve. They create uncertainty in the market.
He believes an expected interest rate cut in the US later this month could favor Bitcoin, but warned that “the current situation could have a compounding effect, including a temporary relief of pressure as well as reflecting a weaker economic environment.”
“Rate cuts may provide temporary relief, but will not necessarily lead to a sustained economic boost if investors perceive a severe economic downturn,” he told CriptoNoticias.
negative seasonality
A similar opinion to Juarez's is that of Alberto Cárdenas, a Venezuelan professional trader and financial analyst. He said: forever Bitcoin has already been canceled and, in fact, In the short term, negative seasonality is emerging for BTC.
“After last week's events, I think October will probably not end on a positive note and will not reach new highs,” the analyst explained ruefully. “There's real damage to the market, and it probably is.” forever Parabitcoin».
Cárdenas believes that November could be a rebound month“as market conditions permit.” He warned that by mid-October, “we are at the peak of the seasonality of the four-year cycle, so there is a risk of reaching the maximum of the cycle.”
In a conversation with this news organization, he emphasized that “there is room, there is always room for new rate hikes, but we are approaching a bear market,” and predicted: From now until the first half of 2026, there will be “adjustment and decline.”
Experts refer to the traditional Bitcoin market cycle, where a scenario where Bitcoin hits an all-time high typically occurs. Before jumping into a bear market. It usually lasts about a year.
Of course, there is always a rebound during these declines, but I think the hype of $150,000 or $200,000 per Bitcoin will be difficult to materialize unless there is a significant catalyst.
Alberto Cárdenas, trader and financial analyst.
The expert also ruled out the possibility of a rate cut in October as planned due to the US government shutdown. For him, This reduction is likely to be ordered in Novemberwhich produces the price rebound it predicts.
“In the short term, ATH will disappear.”
Mr. Julio Moreno, Head of Analysis and Research at an Analysis Company On-chain CryptoQuant warns of continued bear market. He claims that “Bitcoin's structural fundamentals have weakened” after last Friday's crash.
“The bullish score index has dropped to 20, indicating that we are currently in the ‘bearish’ stage. Moreover, BTC spot demand is shrinking,” a Mexican analyst explained to CriptoNoticias.
Moreno points out: Under the current situation, it is difficult to update the all-time high in the short term.: «I don't know if foreverHowever, for now, it is difficult to make new highs in this situation.
In his view, the drop in demand in the spot market reflects caution on the part of investors. They appear to be retreating into a more defensive position. In the face of geopolitical uncertainty.
unstable october
As key technical indicators are showing mixed signals, The Bitcoin market is facing an uncertain scenario.
Action in the coming days will therefore depend on macroeconomic news and the tone adopted by the Federal Reserve at its next meeting.
In any case, the bearish mood has already begun to subside in the market and everything seems to be pointing higher they have already reached. In other words, “winter is coming«. Yes, yes game of thrones.
