There is a quiet and effective power shift in the Bitcoin market. Whales, who hold large quantities of BTC in their $2.1 trillion BTC ecosystem for a long time, sell assets, but institutional investors such as Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs), the Ministry of Finance of the Corporate and Asset Managers, cover most of these sales.
According to data from the 10x survey, whales have dumped over 500,000 Bitcoin over the past year. This is roughly equal to the net BTC flowing into US-approved ETFs, and is very close to the roughly $65 billion BTC portfolio that micro-Strategy (current “Strategy”) has accumulated over the past five years.
However, the sale brought the Bitcoin price to $110,000. Despite growing systemic demand, volatility has gradually declined, with Bitcoin being converted from speculative assets with high yielding prospects into long-term portfolio allocation vehicles.
“We're seeing movements at the bottom,” said Edward Chin, co-founder of Parataxis Capital. He added that the conversion was caused by some of the whales using BTC as collateral for direct stock-related transactions.
According to Flipside Crypto, 95% of Bitcoin in 2020 was held by just 2% of the wallet. But today, institutions ranging from ETFs to MicroStrategy and other institutional companies hold 4.8 million or nearly quarter of the roughly 20 million Bitcoin.
According to Rob Strebel, director of Cumberland, DRW's Crypto Arm, the development has transformed Crypto into a mainstream asset class, bringing lower volatility. In fact, Deribit's 30-day BTC volatility index fell to its lowest level in two years.
However, experts warn that this poses a risk. According to Hillary Allen, a law professor at the University of Washington, University of Washington, the long-standing goal has been to provide whales with liquidity and exit routes through institutional investors. “It could have been provided with that outlet,” Allen says.
Despite the fact that Bitcoin has more than doubled over the past two years, it has been stagnant since entering the country in 2025. Even President Donald Trump's pro-cryptor rhetoric was not enough to push prices up.
Some analysts now expect Bitcoin's annual revenue potential can be limited to 10-20%. “Bitcoin can become a boring dividend stock over time. It's rising a bit every year, but the rate of return is falling.”
However, the photos are not completely clear. Not all whale movements can be tracked on-chain, and new catalysts can emerge at any time that could cause sudden changes in the market.
According to a 10x survey in the past, when whales were sold at 2% (2018) and 9% (2022), there were major crashes of 74% and 64%, respectively. In a similar scenario today, if institutional demand stalls, the market can cast disproportionately.
“The market may be nearing its peak,” says Fred Thiel, CEO of Bitcoin Miner Mara Holdings. But he believes there is another dynamic today.
Markus Thielen, CEO of 10X Research, said the transformation will be long-term. “This process can take years. Bitcoin is now becoming an asset with a return of 10-20%. Its nature is changing.”
*This is not investment advice.
