Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below $90,000 this week, wiping out all gains made in 2025, causing concern among traders. The depth of the decline has some market participants wondering if a new “crypto winter” has begun.
However, several experts agree that this scenario is not yet set and that this move is part of a correction within a larger uptrend.
For example, an analyst at the Bitfinex exchange explained to CriptoNoticias that the decline in Bitcoin (and the crypto market as a whole) is embedded in a technical and macroeconomic context. It still favors the continuation of the bullish cycle.
They point out that the drop below $100,000 was influenced by a movement. risk off We saw widespread and large outflows into spot ETFs ahead of the weekend, with leveraged liquidations exceeding $1.1 billion. “All of this created a cascading effect,” they explain.
It also remembers that this decline came after “a bull market that saw Bitcoin rise to over $126,000 a few weeks ago,” resulting in the typical end-of-year profit-taking and illiquidity. Affected selling pressure.
The aforementioned analysts argue: Low prices induce orders Represents the cost basis for short-term investors. Both are positive factors for asset prices.
In this sense, they stress that “there is still nothing to indicate a structural change in the cycle,” ruling out for now the theory of longer winters.
“Bitcoin’s outlook remains positive.”
They at Bitfinex stress that despite market tensions, “signs continue to point to a constructive scenario.” They explain that at the technical and on-chain level, there are price areas that are “concentrated with strong levels of demand that historically favor a rebound.”
They also said that ETFs and institutional investors “already manage over 4 million BTC” They usually use these modifications to improve their rankings.
On the macroeconomic side, they think: The situation remains favorable“the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain an accommodative bias into 2026” and “global liquidity will expand again.”
The experts added that corporate demand for Bitcoin and other digital assets continues to increase in Latin America. As examples, they cite the case of Méliuz, which announced the purchase of 604.9 Bitcoin, and the case of OranjeBTC, which established itself as the largest public holder of BTC and cryptocurrencies in Latin America. This is after debuting on the stock market with 3,691 BTC.
For Bitfinex, these cases show that “Latin America is entering a new era of greater institutional adoption.” Integration of Bitcoin as a treasury asset in long-term corporate strategy.
“It's noisy, but it's not winter.”
Salvadoran analyst Jaime Merino agrees with Bitfinex that Bitcoin's recent decline does not represent a change in the cycle. In his opinion, the decline towards the region close to $90,000 caused further caution among operators, but does not constitute a long-term bearish scenario.
“For me, this is not a crypto winter. “What we are seeing is a correction within a larger uptrend,” Merino assures CriptNoticias. He added that Bitcoin has “already shown several times that strong rallies are followed by crashes, and that's completely normal.”
Experts believe that as long as the digital currency maintains its main technical structure, the bullish trend will remain intact. “Yes, there's noise, but it's not winter,” he says.
Additionally, on-chain data reinforces the following theory: The market may be entering a liquidation phase This is not a long bear cycle. The short-term holders SOPR (STH-SOPR) indicator, which measures whether short-term holders are selling at a profit or loss, fell to 0.97 and has remained below 1 for several weeks.
According to the XWIN Research platform, this behavior “reflects a severe 'purification' process.” It is characterized by systematic sales with losses by recent investors. they claim that This suggests that Bitcoin's selling pressure may be easing.
Forced and unstructured Bitcoin crash
Spanish researcher Carmelo Aleman also rules out the possibility of a change in the cycle. He described Bitcoin's current decline as “an artificial and forced decline.” Mainly affected by liquidity factors and derivatives.
Long-term investors saw sales increase by 2.81% last month, but Aleman stresses that this amount is “not enough to cause such a sharp price decline.” In his opinion, this is a natural “fatigue” of those who have already benefited.
It also shows that these sales were absorbed by large holders. “Whales are absorbing just under half of the BTC sold, and the rest is being absorbed by groups of 100 to 1,000 Bitcoins,” he explains.
Sure enough, with Bitcoin falling below $90,000, Bitcoin's annual return was -2.10%, completely reversing its cumulative annual gain. However, the experts consulted agreed that: The market has not yet shown any signs of a crypto winter.
Strong technical support, sustained institutional demand, a short-term capitulation phase, and expected macro stability in 2026 constitute key scenarios. where Short-term or medium-term recovery remains likely. Unless, of course, the global environment deteriorates significantly.
