Over the past few days, Bitcoin (BTC) prices have shown signs of drying up after months of rally.
According to data from analytics firm Glassnode, the market is in a fragile equilibrium, characterized by a decline in bullish momentum and increasing selling pressure from long-term holders (LTH).
According to analysts at Glassnode, Bitcoin’s recent price structure is replicating the rebound pattern seen in the quarters since the last all-time high (ATH) reached in 2024.. At the time, the temporary rise was quickly tempered by existing supply.
Experts say fresh selling by long-term holders is adding to resistance in the supply zone between $107,000 and $118,000. This means profit-taking remains high and “continues to limit bullish momentum.”
The following graph shows a cost distribution heat map and clearly shows that Bitcoin price is resting on a solid base of support between $95,000 and $100,000.. Most of the acquired supply is concentrated there.
This zone represents a critical level that investors actively protect. Similarly, a resistance area has been identified around $110,000-115,000, which could increase selling pressure.
In fact, Bitcoin has had difficulty sustaining its cost base for short-term holders near $113,100.. This is the level that can be considered the dividing line between a bullish trend and a bearish trend.
Glassnode warns that if progress over six months does not exceed that threshold, it suggests demand is cooling, increasing the risk of a prolonged correction.
Furthermore, the company warns that if this phase is extended, the next significant technical support will be around $88,000 per BTC, which corresponds to the average realized price by active investors. Historically, its price It showed the bottom of a deeper correction.recalls the company.
Various signals from investor sentiment
Glassnode's analysis also points out: Short-term buyer sentiment gradually deteriorates. The STH-NUPL (Short Term Holders Net Unrealized Gains and Losses) indicator was recently reading -0.05. This value reflects a small loss compared to the yield phase of the previous cycle, when this indicator fell below -0.2. In the following graph:
The current action shows that although the market is not yet in a general panic stage, time is against the bulls. Prices remain within the $107,000 to $117,000 range, so Buyer confidence continues to weaken.
Additionally, one of the factors most influencing the current market structure is: Continued sales by long-term holders. Glassnode estimates that the group's net position change has fallen to -104,000 BTC per month, the lowest level since July 2024.
“Historically, large market expansions have only begun after long-term holders have moved from net distributions to sustained accumulation,” the firm warns.
In other words, Bitcoin's recovery will largely depend on whether these investors resume their accumulation, the analytics firm suggests. It highlights that the amount of Bitcoin transferred from long-term wallets to exchanges is a sign of a potential sale. This increased to $293 million per day. This is more than double the average observed in the last quarter of 2024, as seen in the chart below.
The above suggests that experienced investors are taking profit and spot demand is limiting the ability to absorb selling pressure.
Glassnode compares this situation to August 2024, which was coupled with a similar distribution pattern and deceleration in price momentum. In this sense, the company believes that as long as currency remittances through LTH remain high, Markets are likely to remain under pressure in the coming weeks.
Macroeconomic outlook and mixed signals from the US
Brazilian financial analyst Andre Chalegre believes that in addition to on-chain data, macroeconomic factors will continue to be a determining factor in Bitcoin's behavior in the short term.
“To know how the market moves, you have to look at the data, especially the US economic data, every day,” he explains in a conversation with CriptoNoticias. “This will help us understand whether there will be further rate cuts or if there will be rate cuts next year. quantitative easing. In any case, paralysis quantitative tightening “That's already a great sign,” he points out.
In economics, quantitative easing (QE) is an expansionary monetary policy in which central banks inject liquidity into the market by purchasing bonds and other financial assets. This is to stimulate credit and economic growth when interest rates are very low. The effect is typically bullish for assets like Bitcoinby increasing the amount of money in circulation.
Conversely, quantitative tightening (QT) involves extracting liquidity by selling assets or letting central bank bonds mature. Suspension of QT means this capital outflow process will stop. This is generally interpreted as a sign of monetary easing And it could also boost financial markets.
The analyst claims that December 10th could be a key date. On that day, we will know whether the Fed will continue or end its tight monetary policy. “Chairman Powell had already said he wasn't sure about further rate cuts this year, which created uncertainty in the market,” Challegre recalled.
“However, the announcement that QT could be completely stopped is a positive sign, although the market may have already expected it,” the expert said.
Adding to this uncertainty is the lack of recent data due to the nearly month-long U.S. government shutdown. This prevents the publication of key indicators such as employment. “Lack of information increases volatility,” the analyst added.
Buy Bitcoin when you're worried
Chalegre, a member of the analysis and advisory firm LVTN Corp., suggests keeping an eye on the fear and greed index. As a thermometer of market sentiment.
“I like to buy when everyone is scared,” he says. “If you analyze it and find that there are no signs of a bear market, either macroeconomically or on-chain, that generalized fear can be a great buying opportunity,” he says.
On the other hand, Chalegre said: It is an important element that supports the demand of institutions. “In previous cycles, when whales sold in large quantities, prices would fall. But now we're seeing the opposite, strong institutional entry from managers like BlackRock, Grayscale, and new ETFs. This opens the door to a long-term expansion of the cycle,” he says.
Analysts note that purchases by institutional investors usually take place in the over-the-counter market (over the counter), since it is outside the exchange. The impact on prices will not be immediatebut important in the medium term.
Therefore, he concludes, “It is this behavior that is supporting the market and making a big difference compared to previous cycles.”
