Every few months, headlines warn of impending multibillion-dollar option expirations that could shake up the price of Bitcoin.
This quarter's figure of about $13 billion in notional value sounds dramatic, but it's part of a well-worn pattern for exchange Deribit, which closes nearly 90% of Bitcoin options open interest.
The real story is not in the size of the expiration date, but in the rhythm of how volatility is priced, hedged, and recycled through the platforms currently underpinning the crypto derivatives market.
mechanical heartbeat
Deribit's quarterly and month-end maturities follow a simple rhythm. On the last Friday of each period, all short-term contracts are settled at the same time.
Traders start rolling their positions several days in advance, moving expiring exposures to new maturities. This means that the $13 billion figure represents the total notional amount. Most of them are already neutralized long before the time is up.
In 2025 alone, the market has already experienced maturities of similar size: about $11.7 billion in May, $15 billion in June, and $14 billion to $15 billion in August, none of which derailed spot prices. The stable pattern shows that size is not the only thing driving Bitcoin. Positioning is possible.
Why prices are fixed
As the expiration date nears, a dynamic called gamma pinning keeps Bitcoin unusually stable. Dealers with long gamma, or essentially long volatility through sold options, hedge by buying on the dip and selling on the rise. These offsetting flows suppress realized volatility and often keep BTC near the strike level with the most open interest. This “maximum pain” zone is where the majority of option buyers experience a loss in value.
The moment the contract settles down, this artificial calm disappears. A “gamma reset” removes hedging pressure and allows the spot to move more freely. As Glassnode has shown in past cycles, open interest quickly rebuilds while implied volatility (IV) eases.
Reading volatility with DVOL
The pulse of the options market is captured in Deribit's DVOL, a 30-day implied volatility index derived from Options Smile. DVOL surged more than 70% in late October, reflecting traders' demand for protection amid macro uncertainty.
However, as maturity approaches, DVOL typically declines unless external factors such as economic data, ETF flows, or liquidity shocks intervene. The indicator now also has its own futures, allowing traders to bet directly on the volatility itself.
Newcomers should think of DVOL as a measure of expected turbulence. If DVOL is high, the market is expecting a big move. When stock prices are low, options traders think they see calm waters ahead. Comparing DVOL and realized volatility can tell you whether option sellers are demanding a premium or are satisfied with pricing. DVOL remains abundant relative to realized levels, suggesting sellers are earning carry, and compression warns that volatility could reignite.
Context beyond cryptocurrencies
Unlike previous cycles, today's volatility is not isolated within the cryptocurrency arena. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have become the main parallel channel for Bitcoin. In early October, global crypto ETF inflows reached nearly $6 billion in one week, providing stable demand and helping to moderate spot prices.
This association means that derivatives are now alongside institutional investors, rather than against them, as spikes in volatility are as likely to be dampened as they are caused by ETF flows.
At the same time, CME options activity has grown, providing US desks with a regulated venue for hedging, while offshore traders continue to focus on Deribit. The result is a fragmented ecosystem. Deribit defines short-term crypto-native volatility, while CME reflects participation in TradFi. Their interaction helps explain why records' expiration dates pass with minimal deviation.
What to look for after the expiry date
Once $13 billion is cleared, the following three variables form the next leg:
- Open interest reconstruction: The new maturity indicates what kind of movement traders are expecting. The shift to upside calls signals renewed optimism. The high interest in puts suggests caution.
- DVOL terminology structure: A decrease in the previous month's premium after expiration indicates normalization. A sustained rise means prolonged uncertainty.
- ETF and macro overlays: Strong inflows or weak economic data can override technical expiry effects and redirect flows faster than the options book can adjust.
big picture
Kaiko's research frames these expirations as volatility management events rather than market shocks. Each clears the board, resets positions, and lays the foundation for the next volatility cycle.
Deribit's dominance ensures that Bitcoin's implicit volatility structure (balance of fear and greed) remains fixed in the way traders hedge on its single platform.
To the savvy desk, Friday expiration dates are just accounting. For observers chasing the next “big move,” this is a reminder that the loudest numbers often hide the quiet workings that run modern cryptocurrency markets.
