Bitcoin has struggled to maintain its correlation with gold, and has recently only moved in unison during market downturns. However, examining Bitcoin price trends through the lens of gold rather than the US dollar reveals a more complete picture of the current market cycle. By measuring Bitcoin's true purchasing power relative to comparable assets, we can identify potential support levels and determine where a bear market cycle is nearing its end.
Bitcoin bear market officially begins below major support
Breaking below the 350-day moving average of about $100,000 and breaking the psychological six-digit barrier marked a functional move into bear market territory, and shortly thereafter, Bitcoin fell about 20%. From a technical perspective, trading below the Golden Ratio Multiplier Moving Average historically indicates that Bitcoin is in a bearish cycle, but this story becomes more interesting when measured against gold rather than the US dollar.
Figure 1: BTC falling below the 350DMA has historically coincided with the start of a bear market. View live charts
A Bitcoin vs. Gold chart tells a markedly different story than a USD chart. Bitcoin peaked in December 2024 and has since fallen more than 50% from that level, while the US dollar's valuation peaked in October 2025, well below its high the previous year. This divergence suggests that Bitcoin may have been in a bear market for much longer than most observers realize. Looking at Bitcoin's past bearish cycles as measured by gold, we see a pattern that suggests the current decline may already be approaching an important support zone.
Figure 2: Priced in gold, BTC fell below the 350DMA in August.
The 2015 bear cycle bottomed out at an 86% retracement that lasted 406 days. The 2017 cycle was 364 days, an 84% decrease. The last bear cycle involved a 76% drawdown over 399 days. Currently, at the time of this analysis, Bitcoin is down 51% in 350 days compared to gold. Although the rate of drawdowns has decreased as Bitcoin's market capitalization has expanded and more capital has flowed into the market, this trend reflects increased institutional adoption and loss of Bitcoin supply rather than a fundamental change in cycle dynamics.
Figure 3: Plotting the value of BTC against gold reveals a cyclical pattern that suggests we may already be 90% through this bear market.
Multi-cycle confluence signals nearing bottom of Bitcoin bear market
Fibonacci retracement levels mapped over multiple cycles provide greater accuracy, rather than relying solely on drawdown percentage and elapsed time. Using the Fibonacci retracement tool from bottom to top over past cycles reveals surprising levels of confluence.
Figure 4: In previous cycles, bear market bottoms have coincided with major Fibonacci retracement levels.
In the 2015-2018 cycle, the bear market bottom occurred at the 0.618 Fibonacci level. This is equivalent to approximately 2.56 ounces of gold per Bitcoin. The resulting price trend was much clearer than the equivalent US dollar chart and marked the bottom surprisingly clearly. Moving forward into the 2018-2022 cycle, the bear market bottom coincided almost perfectly with the 0.5 level of gold at approximately 9.74 ounces per Bitcoin. This level acted as a meaningful resistance-to-support line as Bitcoin reclaimed it during the ensuing bull market.
Bitcoin bear market gold ratio back to USD price target
From the previous bear market low to the current bull cycle high, the 0.618 Fibonacci level is at approximately 22.81 ounces of gold per Bitcoin, and the 0.5 level is at 19.07 ounces. The current price trend is trading around the midpoint between these two levels, which could be an attractive accumulation zone from a purchasing power perspective.
Figure 5: Applying Fibonacci levels to predict market lows for BTC versus gold, and then converting these back to USD, shows where the price of Bitcoin is likely to bottom.
Multiple Fibonacci levels from different cycles form additional confluences. The 0.786 level in the current cycle is equivalent to approximately 21.05 ounces of gold and the Bitcoin price of approximately $89,160. The 0.618 level from the previous cycle is again aligned around $80,000. These convergence zones suggest that if Bitcoin falls further, the next important technical objective would be around $67,000, which is derived from the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level of around 15.95 ounces of gold per Bitcoin.
Conclusion: Bitcoin bear market may already be 90% complete
Bitcoin is likely to be in a bear market for much longer than a USD-only analysis would suggest, with its purchasing power already significantly reduced since December 2024 when compared to gold and other comparable assets. Historical Fibonacci retracement levels point to a potential support confluence in the $67,000 to $80,000 range, if properly adjusted over multiple cycles and translated back to USD terms. Although this analysis is theoretical in nature and unlikely to be performed with perfect precision, the convergence of multiple data points across time periods and valuation frameworks suggests that the bear market may be nearing an end sooner than many expected.
If you want to learn more about this topic, check out our latest YouTube video: Proof This Bitcoin Bear Market May Be OVER Already
For more in-depth data, charts, and expert insights on Bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com. For more expert market insights and analysis, subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please be sure to do your own research before making any investment decisions.
This post “Why the Bitcoin Bear Market is Almost Over” first appeared in Bitcoin Magazine and was written by Matt Crosby.
