The U.S. government shutdown remains in full force, now in its 24th day. This is the second-longest period in U.S. history and is on track to eclipse the 35-day record of President Trump's first term in 2019. Current data shows that around 2 million workers have had their payments suspended and 900,000 have been furloughed.
Additionally, many government-related sectors are missing certain deadlines, such as the release of last month's consumer price index data, which is critical in determining the Fed's next actions. After a significant delay of more than a week, September CPI numbers are expected to be released later today and are expected to impact BTC as they have many times before. The question is whether the price decline from the previous announcement will be repeated.
Higher than expected?
The overall forecast in Washington was for consumer prices to rise for the second month in a row in September, which experts believe has more to do with tariff-sensitive items.
“While the September CPI release date may have been moved due to the government shutdown, the stubborn inflation picture remains intact,” said Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo.
in a statement to crypto potatoa Bitfinex analyst commented:
“We'll be watching for a split between core CPI and non-housing services first, because a m/m above about 0.35% or a core index above 3.2% y/y would push real yields higher, strengthen the dollar and reduce risk appetite, whereas a soft index below about 2.8% y/y or a weak monthly pace could revive rate cut expectations and increase risk.”
Despite the significant risk of higher inflation, the US Federal Reserve is still expected to cut its key interest rate later this month and possibly again in December.
Will BTC crash again?
As reported over a month ago, BTC price fell immediately after the release of US CPI data for August, which was quite surprising given that the numbers were in line with expectations. Therefore, many are predicting that Bitcoin will head south if September's numbers are better than expected.
$BTC has rebounded again from the $106,00-$107,000 support zone.
Trump hinted at a big deal with China, and that's a good thing.
Also, the CPI will be released tomorrow and a lower-than-expected index will be bullish for Bitcoin.
If CPI is higher than expected, expect more pain… pic.twitter.com/G0HeD763dz
— Ted (@TedPillows) October 23, 2025
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However, cryptocurrencies have proven in the past to often move in the opposite direction to people's expectations. Nevertheless, volatility is most likely on the cards for BTC for the day due to the importance of the CPI numbers and the Fed meeting scheduled for next week.
