XRP analyst Chad Steingraber outlined new projections that show how quickly institutional inflows into spot ETFs will consume XRP's circulating supply.
His analysis builds on widespread belief within the XRP community that the true impact of ETFs has yet to materialize, but that if it does, the scale could be unprecedented.
“1 billion a day” ETF flow scenario
In a post about X, Steingraber shared a hypothetical model with assumptions based on the current XRP price. Here are the results of his calculations:
- A single XRP ETF could see average daily inflows of $90 million.
- The 12 ETFs add up to a total of $1.08 billion per day.
- Assuming 50% of that creates new XRP, that's $504 million.
- This requires purchasing approximately 229 million XRP in one day.
He then extended his model to show that if this level of ETF inflows continued for a week, it would need to acquire 1.14 billion XRP.
After one month, this number increases to 4.58 billion XRP, and after six months, ETF issuers could absorb 27.49 billion XRP, almost half of the circulating supply.
Ultimately, Steingraber argued that absent price increases, the collective XRP ETF could consume all of the public supply within a year.
This is consistent with his earlier point that XRP faces two possible outcomes. Either the ETF accumulates most of its supply at current prices, or its purchases slow as prices rise. Both scenarios remain bullish in the long run.
Why ETF inflows could explode
Notably, Steingraber's scenario comes as the XRP ETF gains momentum. Canary Capital's XRPC ETF saw inflows of $245 million on its first day, followed by inflows of $25.41 million and $8.32 million over the next two days. So far, Canary's XRP ETF has accumulated $277.82 million in assets.
Meanwhile, analysts expect Franklin Templeton's EZRP ETF, which launches on Nov. 24, to raise between $150 million and $250 million on its first day.
Five more ETFs are pending: Bitwise, Grayscale, 21Shares, Valkyrie, and CoinShares. Based on this, community predictions suggest that the seven XRP ETFs could generate $7.2 billion in annual inflows.
Will it cause a supply shock?
Commentators like Steingraber say there are just over 60 billion units of XRP in circulation, and competing demand for ETFs could create a large supply imbalance.
His model suggests that six months of heavy inflows could consume half of the supply, and nearly all publicly available XRP could be absorbed in a full year. However, this is still speculation.
Furthermore, despite continued ETF demand, XRP continues to trade near $2.15. Specifically, XRP has had a slow price response to the ETF launch, declining more than 12% since last week.
As XRPL Foundation board member Fabio Marzella pointed out, the demand for the ETF will not be immediately reflected in the spot market, as trading takes place on stock exchanges, funds are settled on T+1 cycles, and issuers buy XRP OTC rather than publicly.
In other words, this delays any visible price impact and means billions of dollars can accumulate quietly before impacting the market.
